Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates edged lower again yesterday as key infrastructure legislation stalled in Congress. These rates remain extraordinarily low by almost every historical standard. But they’re not as low as they were five or six weeks ago.

So far this morning, mortgage rates today are looking likely to fall. However, there’s plenty on the calendar that could turn that around later.

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Bond markets seem to be taking a breather as Congress gets its act together (or doesn’t) over some key points on the president’s agenda.

But it still seems much more likely that mortgage rates will rise soon rather than fall.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell to 1.48% from 1.54%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were mostly higher soon after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower
• Oil prices climbed to $75.15 from $73.37 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity. 
• Gold prices rose to $1,758 from $1,739 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — edged lower to 27 from 31 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to fall. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Oct 1st, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that previously existed

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

Yesterday, one crisis was averted in Congress. The government shutdown, which was due to start at midnight that day, no longer will. But the financial doomsday clock that’s counting down to Oct. 18, when the debt ceiling will be reached, is still ticking.

If the ceiling isn’t raised by then, the United States will begin to default on its debts for the first time in history. And that’s way more scary than any short-term government shutdown.

Here’s what a 2013 US Treasury report had to say about such a default scenario:

Credit markets could freeze, the value of the dollar could plummet, US interest rates could skyrocket, the negative spillovers could reverberate around the world, and there might be a financial crisis and recession that could echo the events of 2008 or worse.

The last time legislators took that ceiling to the brink was in 2011. And then America’s credit rating was downgraded and borrowing costs increased across the board. Note that those events occurred even though the ceiling was raised before the deadline. Just showing that it was possible that the country could default was enough to wreak real damage.

Now, a decade on, no lessons have been learned. And, were the debt ceiling actually to cause defaults, the consequences would be incalculable. But they’d almost certainly include higher borrowing costs on all forms of debt, including mortgages.

So far, this possibility has probably had only limited effects on mortgage rates. But, as that particular doomsday clock ticks down, its impact on those rates is likely to grow. And not in a good way.