House prices not spooked by end of stamp duty holiday: e.surv | Mortgage Strategy

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House prices lifted 1.2% last month to an average of £328,610 as the market rebalances after the partial end of the stamp duty holiday, according to the latest e.surv Acadata House Price Index.

This translates to a 3.6% annual rise, but the survey points out there are still “substantial pockets” of high price rises across the country with Wales leading the way with annual growth of 11.2%.

The report points out that the stamp duty holiday came to an end at the end of June – but the tax savings available in Wales were not as large as in England.

Average savings in Wales were £2,450, compared to £15,000 in England.

It says: “This is we think a key reason potentially why the fall in prices in Wales has not been as significant as in England over the past few months.”

This compares to the North East, which suffered its largest fall in the annual rate of growth over September, down by 6.3%.

The stamp duty holiday meant home buyers didn’t have to pay stamp duty on the first £500,000 of purchase, falling to the first £250,000 from 1 July.

However, the nil-payment threshold returned to the pre-pandemic level of £125,000 from 1 October.

E.surv director Richard Sexton says: “House price growth is clearly in retreat in headline terms but there is little evidence of prices stagnating or falling. Indeed, regionally, there are substantial pockets of resistance to overall falls in house price growth.

“In terms of property types, it’s worth noting too that, while the pandemic drove a race for space the price of flats in September staged a small recovery with the largest gains in flat prices being seen in prime Central London and in Hammersmith and Fulham.

“On September’s data, there is little evidence that homebuyers are being spooked by the end of the furlough scheme. Data from government points to a resilient job market that will further underpin buyer and lender confidence.”

The report says the average price of all completed sales funded by both mortgages and cash grew at an annual rate of 3.6% in September.

This is just 0.2% lower than the rate of 3.8% recorded in August, but is a fall of 5.1% from the 8.7% growth in prices seen in June.

It says the slowing of price growth since June “almost certainly relates to the ending of the first stage of the stamp duty holiday in England, along with the complete withdrawal of the Land Transaction tax holiday in Wales”.

The survey adds, in Greater London, 23 of the 33 boroughs, or 70%, saw prices fall in the month. Interestingly, 7 of the 10 boroughs with price increases in the month were in the top 10 boroughs by value, “suggesting a price recovery in prime Central London, at odds with the remainder of the Greater London area”.

The survey says: “The big question is, of course, what happens next?

“The tax holiday conferred individual advantage, but it also led to a wider market re-pricing, leading some households to pay more to buy their home.

“It is, in essence, a zero-sum outcome, and even the exchequer has also done well out of it in terms of total tax revenue.

“Looking forward, it seems that the momentum in the market is far from spent and there doesn’t seem to be any sense of an imminent downturn.”


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