This will leave the market to pore over the minutes of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee on Thursday for indications of when rate-setters will resume cutting the cost of money. 

Deutsche Bank predicts the nine-member MPC will vote 7 to 2 to hold, with external doves Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor opting for a quarter-point reduction.  

The German bank says the pair may press the case that current inflation is in a hump period, as labour markets continues to cool.

Job openings fell by 5.8% to 718,000 between May and July across nearly all industries, according to the latest Office for National Statistics data. Average wage growth remained at 5%, while the unemployment rate was unmoved at 4.7%. 

However, at the MPC’s last meeting in August, the committee said it expects inflation to climb to 4% next week, after its surprise rise to 3.8% from 3.6% in the year to July. 

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey warned last week that there is “considerably more doubt” about when the central bank will be able to cut interest rates again.   

After the governor’s comments, markets ruled out further rate cuts for the rest of this year.

This came after rate-setters cut the base quarter point to 4% last month in a narrow 5-to-4 vote, bringing the interest rate down to its lowest level since March 2023. It was the third rate cut this year and the fifth since last August.   

Deutsche Bank senior economist Sanjay Raja says: “If there’s any surprise in the MPC minutes, it’s likely to come from the Bank’s forward guidance.” 

He outlines three options: “Stick to its current guidance of ‘gradual and careful’ rate cuts, two, tweak its current guidance to ‘gradual and cautious’ rate cuts, or three, simply, drop the current guidance entirely.” 

EY ITEM Club chief economic advisor Matt Swannell will also closely study rate-setter’s guidance. 

Swannell says: “Although it’s looking increasingly likely that the MPC won’t see the disinflationary signals it needs to cut interest rates again this year, it still appears to favour further eventual interest rate cuts.  

“But with little clarity on when they should be delivered, rate setters could be easily swayed by relatively little new information.  

“That leaves the November and December decisions closer calls than some expect, particularly as the MPC will have to digest the finer points of a late November Budget that will inevitably see fiscal policy tightened.”