Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates just inched lower yesterday. That surprised me because it looked that morning as if a small rise was more likely. But these tiny variations make little difference. Indeed, your lender might not have bothered changing your rate.

Judging from market movements first thing this morning, mortgage rates may fall moderately again today.

Find and lock a low rate (Apr 6th, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Find and lock a low rate (Apr 6th, 2021)

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

The lull in higher mortgage rates continues. Indeed, if you cherry-pick the data, you can make a case that we’re in a period of falls. But, if you look back over a meaningful period of time (a month, say, or longer) the upward trend is unmistakable.

Of course, I can’t guarantee that that upward trend isn’t reversing. Nor that there won’t be more significant falls ahead. But it looks unlikely to me.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

But I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasurys fell to 1.68% from 1.74% (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
• Major stock indexes were mostly lower on opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
• Oil prices nudged up to $60.20 from $59.98 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
• Gold prices rose to $1,740 from $1,725 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Edged up to 64 from 62 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to fall moderately. Just be aware that intraday swings (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Apr 6th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care‘
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

Some markets responded yesterday to Good Friday’s exceptionally strong jobs report. And some stock indexes rose to record highs. But bond markets (including the one that determines most mortgage rates) generally didn’t.

Why not? Well, it may be because bond investors are keeping their powder dry ahead of two imminent pieces of news. First, is the release later this morning of job openings and labor turnover (JOLT) for February. And, secondly, tomorrow afternoon sees the Federal Reserve release the minutes of its last key policy meeting. Bond markets are especially sensitive to these sorts of information. Alternatively, Investopedia today suggested this in The Express e-newsletter:

U.S. Treasury bond yields continue to back away from recent highs, despite more signs of economic growth. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury sits at 1.70%, down from 1.77% last week, as investors are caught between leaning into the stock market, which continues to touch new highs, and the relative safety of the Treasury market, where returns are thin.

Meanwhile, my personal outlook for the future includes further rises in mortgage rates. That’s because I agree with CNBC’s analysis from yesterday:

Economists expect the second quarter to grow by more than 9%, and the monthly jobs reports are likely to show very strong hiring, with job growth averaging more than 1 million new payrolls in each of the next several months.

— CNBC, “The Fed could come under fire for easy policy while the economy soars and inflation rises,” April 5,2021

Historically, both a booming economy and higher inflation almost invariably bring higher interest rates, including mortgage rates.

For more background on my wider thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday soon after 10 a.m. (ET).

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates rose. And Freddie’s Apr. 1 report puts that weekly average at 3.18% (with 0.7 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 3.17%.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2/21, Q3/21, Q4/21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1/22).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on March 17 and the MBA’s on March 22. But Freddie now publishes forecasts quarterly. Its figures are from Jan. 10 and are looking distinctly stale:

Forecaster	Q2/21	Q3/21	Q4/21	Q1/22
Fannie Mae	3.1%	3.1%	3.2%	3.3%
Freddie Mac	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	N/A
MBA	3.2%	3.4%	3.6%	3.7%

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And there’s certainly a widening spread as the year progresses.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Apr 6th, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology