The UK housing market showed early signs of stabilising in June, despite activity remaining subdued, according to the latest residential market survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).
The report said the pace of decline is easing. However, buyer demand and sales remain weak. Respondents also highlighted domestic political uncertainty as a growing headwind, despite recent easing in global geopolitical tensions.
New buyer enquiries improved slightly. The headline net balance rose to -29% from -34% in each of the previous two months. It was the least negative reading since February but continued to point to weak demand.
The net balance is the proportion of survey respondents that report a rise versus those reporting a fall.
Agreed sales also improved marginally. The net balance came in at -32%, compared with -35% previously. Even so, the latest figure continued to reflect subdued market activity.
Looking ahead, near-term sales expectations improved to a net balance of -16%, up from a low of -34% in March. Respondents expect recent weakness to ease over the next three months. They do not expect a significant recovery. Sales volumes over the next year are expected to remain broadly flat.
Supply continued to weaken. The new instructions to sell indicator fell to a net balance of -23%, down from -10% previously. It was the weakest reading for more than a year. Market appraisals also declined to -22%. Together, the figures suggest the pipeline of new properties is beginning to thin.
House prices remained under modest downward pressure. The latest aggregate net balance was -33%, broadly unchanged from -35% in April and -34% in May. However, the report suggested the trend is stabilising rather than worsening.
Regionally, the South East and South West of England continued to record weaker price sentiment than the UK average. In contrast, respondents in Northern Ireland and, to a lesser extent, Scotland, continued to report rising house prices.
Near-term expectations for prices remained slightly negative but improved from the previous survey. Over the next 12 months, respondents were modestly more optimistic. A net balance of +8% expected prices to rise, up from +6%.
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, said: “Ongoing worries about the conflict in Iran and its impact on the economy – especially mortgage rates and inflation – as well as domestic political uncertainty means home buying and selling is being pushed further down the ‘to-do’ list.
“Nevertheless, those who need rather than want to move are negotiating hard and trying to anticipate the market’s direction of travel.
“The net result is prices and activity are holding up better than we dared hope although we are not expecting a significant summer rebound, bearing in mind these distractions are likely to continue for a few more months at least.”
Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfacts, said: “The supply of homes coming onto the market is beginning to thin, with both new instructions and market appraisals moving deeper into negative territory. The recent volatility in mortgage pricing and wider geopolitical uncertainty may have prompted some homeowners to pause their plans to sell until the outlook becomes clearer. Fewer properties coming onto the market could restrict the overall supply of homes in the months ahead. Overall, market sentiment remains subdued, although downward pressure on house prices appears to be easing.
“Falling mortgage rates could encourage prospective buyers, but affordability pressures and wider economic uncertainty can create caution, with some sitting on the fence until rates fall further.”