Resi transactions down third consecutive month in November: HMRC Mortgage Strategy

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Residential transactions fell for the third consecutive month in November with seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted transactions down by 1% and 2% respectively, according to latest figures from the HMRC.

The provisional seasonally adjusted UK residential transactions in November 2023 are 80,780; 22% lower than November 2022 and 1% lower than October 2023.

While the non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in November 2023 are 87,640; 22% lower than November 2022 and 2% lower than October 2023

The HMRC data showed that while non-seasonally adjusted residential transactions have fallen by 22% since November 2022, the non-residential sector has remained more stable with a less than 1% increase in transactions over the last 12 months.

Similarly, non-seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions rose by 4% relative to October 2023 with seasonally adjusted figures up by 3%.

The provisional non-seasonally and seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK non-residential transactions in November 2023 are 10,250 and 9,900 respectively.

The HMRC publishes monthly provisional estimates of residential and non-residential property transactions in the UK and its constituent countries.

The data are based upon records by HMRC, Revenue Scotland, Welsh Revenue Authority, Land and Buildings Transaction Tax and Land Transaction Tax.

It looks at monthly property transactions completed in the UK with value of £40,000 or above.

Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, said: “Transaction numbers have slipped again in the face of higher mortgage rates and the cost of living, as borrowers reassess what they can afford to pay.

“Encouragingly, the direction of travel for new mortgage rates is downwards, with fixed rates looking increasingly attractive. However, borrowers do have to accept that they will pay considerably more now than in the heady days of sub-1 per cent mortgages.

“With the Bank of England holding rates again at the December meeting, this has further reinforced the belief that base rate has peaked and the next move will be downwards, which will provide a welcome boost.”

Tomer Aboody, director of property lender MT Finance, added: “Less confidence in the housing market, along with higher mortgage costs, has resulted in a lower level of transactions as buyers and sellers were not motivated to transact.

“However, there should be more encouraging signs to come in 2024 as rates seemed to have peaked and inflation is reducing, which will hopefully translate into a stronger market with an uptick in transactions.

“Some assistance from the government might be needed in order to persuade or encourage sellers to finally move.”


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