If you had asked most people at the start of this year what the second half of 2026 would look like, I suspect many would have predicted a more settled environment than the one we find ourselves in today.
Back then, interest rates appeared to be moving in the right direction, inflation looked broadly under control and there was a growing expectation the market would enjoy a period of relative stability after several years of disruption. Instead, uncertainty has returned.
Which of course does not mean activity has stopped, and that may be one of the most important lessons from the current market.
May was a good example. Rates moved higher during the first half of the month and, quite naturally, activity quietened down slightly as brokers and borrowers waited to see what would happen next. There were also two bank holidays equalling a couple of four-day weeks and, perhaps most damaging of all, some unusually good weather. As anyone in financial services knows, a sunny Friday in any month, let alone May, is unlikely to be the most productive of the year.
Yet again, despite all of that, our activity at Landbay held up very well. Volumes were broadly in line with April and offer numbers were particularly encouraging. I think that tells us something important about the market we are operating in today.
A familiar political backdrop?
In many respects, the current environment feels remarkably similar to this period in 2024. Back then, much of the conversation centred on the forthcoming 4th July General Election and the uncertainty surrounding a potential change of Government. Markets were trying to understand what might happen next and borrowers were weighing up whether to act immediately or wait for greater clarity once they knew the result.
Today, the political backdrop is somewhat different, but the uncertainty feels familiar.
This month’s Makerfield by-election could prove to be one of the most significant political events of the year. Not because of the seat itself, but because of what it might mean for the future leadership of the country.
If Andy Burnham wins, many commentators believe it becomes relatively clear what happens next. He would immediately emerge as a leading contender to become Labour leader, and therefore Prime Minister, we would undoubtedly have a leadership contest and by the Autumn we could have full-scale political change.
The more interesting question however may be what happens if Burnham does not win? There are no guarantees of course; Reform did very well in that area at the local elections, and it would be some coup to stop the man some believe is a dead cert to become PM.
In that ‘Burnham loses’ scenario, Labour would not only face difficult questions following another disappointing electoral result, but the identify of future challengers, and potential successors, to Sir Keir Starmer becomes far less obvious. Our current PM would be in a much stronger position to continue in the role.
All of which combined creates a far less certain political environment, and the far greater potential for markets to fluctuate because of a ‘not knowing’ situation. As we know, for markets, that matters a lot.
Investors generally cope much better with outcomes than they do with uncertainty. The challenge is rarely the decision itself. It is the period beforehand when nobody is quite sure what happens next. The same might be said for property investors and landlords who again might feel the need to keep their powder dry a little while all this plays out.
The market is adapting
There are however some key differences between 2024 and 2026 in that landlords, brokers and lenders are now far more accustomed to operating in uncertain conditions.
Over the past decade, the sector has navigated tax changes, regulatory reform, a pandemic, political upheaval, inflation shocks and significant interest rate movements. Waiting for perfect certainty is no longer a realistic strategy because there always appears to be another event on the horizon capable of changing the outlook, even when no-one expects it.
That is why I remain cautiously optimistic about the months ahead. Historically, June and most of July are often strong periods for activity as brokers and borrowers look to progress cases before the summer holiday season begins in earnest. The early signs suggest that pattern may hold true again this year.
There will undoubtedly be further market movements, political headlines and periods of volatility. There always are. The lesson from both 2024 and 2026 is that uncertainty does not necessarily prevent activity. In fact, increasingly, it seems to be becoming a permanent feature of the landscape.
The brokers and landlords who continue to make progress are not those waiting for certainty to arrive. They are the ones who have learned how to operate successfully without it, and as a lender operating in this sector, it’s our duty to ensure we are ready, willing and able to progress cases regardless of how loud or frequent the outside noise might be.
John Goodall is CEO of Landbay
