Fitch Ratings: Coronavirus will lead to a small rise in arrears

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Fitch said that borrowers who are self-employed, on temporary or flexible contracts and some who work for SMEs could see a fall in cash flow and income.

Many lenders are willing to help by offering payment holidays/deferrals, loan modification, accept hardship applications and other measures for borrowers facing temporary employment disruptions. In the UK this includes RBS/NatWest, Lloyds, Nationwide and TSB.

This temporary disruption could result in less home sale activity, which could put pressure on house prices, but low or falling mortgage rates will support borrower affordability in the near term.

The report finds that the asset performance of almost 90% of structured finance transactions globally have high or moderate vulnerability to disruption as a result of the coronavirus.

The vast majority have moderate vulnerability, including most residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS).

High asset performance vulnerability applies to transactions in China, Italy and South Korea as well as global aircraft ABS (asset backed securities) and CMBS loans (commercial mortgage backed securities) secured by retail and hotel properties.

Fitch is basing its ranking on temporary disruption of between one and three months in major metropolitan areas in all countries. Temporary disruptions could include school closures, a significant drop-off in tourism and travel, retail business closing, a halt to restaurant/bar activity and leisure activities, and cancellations of sporting events.

Due to the uncertainty and fast changes related to coronavirus, the ratings agency is also working on analysis of a more severe scenario and will publish this in due course.

Some lenders and servicers, particularly in countries that have already seen significant outbreaks of the virus, have begun to implement their business continuity plans, with staff split across multiple locations and remote working activated.