House prices down in March by 0.5%: Halifax Mortgage Finance Gazette

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House prices fell by 0.5% in March, following a 0.3% rise in February, the latest Halifax house price index reveals.

The average property price in March stood at £299,677.

The latest index found annual growth of 0.8% has slowed, down from 1.2% in February.

Northern Ireland continues to lead UK annual house price growth, with average prices up 8.7% over the past year to £224,809.

Scotland also recorded strong growth, rising 4.4% annually to an average price of £222,716.

Wales saw an increase of 1.6% on annual basis, taking the typical home value to £230,909.

In England, stronger price growth remains concentrated in northern regions.

The North East saw prices rise 5.0% over the year to £184,119, while the North West recorded annual growth of 3.1%, with the average home now costing £247,442.

The South East led declines, with prices down 1.9% year-on-year to £383,573, while London saw average values fall by 1.2% to £536,751.

Halifax head of mortgages Amanda Bryden says: “The recent slowdown in the housing market reflects the wide uncertainty regarding the conflict in the Middle East.”

“Concerns about higher energy prices have pushed up inflation expectations, which in turn led to a rise in mortgage rates, reducing confidence that interest rates will be cut this year and dampening the initial momentum in the market seen at the start of the year.”

“The effect on house prices will largely depend on how long lasting these pressures prove to be and the wider implications for the economy and unemployment.”

“Mortgage rates are a key factor for buyers, particularly those getting on the ladder for the first time, who are already balancing the challenge of saving a deposit, with the cost of borrowing.

“As a result, many are likely to watch movements in mortgage rates closely, before making a decision on any home purchase.”

“In this environment, professional advice can play an important role in helping people understand their options and make informed decisions that are right for their individual circumstances.

“However, the recent increase in UK mortgage rates has been more modest than the sharp rises seen during the mini budget of 2022.”

“Further, many households will already be on fixed deals, protecting them from the latest rate rises. Taking all this into account, house prices may prove resilient, even if uncertainty weighs on market activity in the near term.”

Also commenting, Propertymark chief executive Nathan Emerson says: “We are at an important intersection where we must clearly acknowledge future challenges ahead.”

“We started the year with positivity in terms of seeing an uplift in the average number of viewings per available property, coupled with general consumer positivity regarding affordability.”

“However, a lot has changed in a short space of time, with numerous sub 4% mortgage deals being withdrawn over the last few weeks as the wider economy adjusts to potential uncertainties.”

“Inflation is expected to increase over the coming months and this is likely to have an immediate effect on consumer affordability. The rate of inflation will also play intense influence on the Bank of England regarding base rate decisions over the forthcoming months too.”

Quilter mortgage expert Karen Noye adds: “March is the first full month in which the conflict in Iran fed through into UK mortgage pricing, making this data set an important early test of how higher borrowing costs are starting to affect the housing market.”

“Higher energy prices have pushed up inflation expectations and swap rates, forcing lenders to reprice and withdraw products, and leading to a sudden deterioration in affordability.”

“Changes in mortgage costs do not feed through to house prices immediately, so any meaningful shift in price momentum linked to the recent rise in borrowing costs is likely to emerge from this point onwards.”

“Looking ahead, the path for house prices will depend largely on how the conflict evolves. If tensions ease and energy driven inflation pressures recede, mortgage rates could stabilise and drift lower again, supporting broadly flat prices.”

“If the conflict drags on, persistently higher mortgage rates are more likely to translate into weaker activity and softer prices, particularly in more rate sensitive parts of the market.”