House prices at 'highest ever levels': Halifax - Mortgage Strategy

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The average UK house price in July was £241,604, the highest Halifax has recorded, its latest house price index shows.

This comes after a 1.6 per cent rise in house prices on a monthly basis and an annual rise of 3.8 per cent.

This growth sees July “comfortably offsetting losses in 2020,” says Halifax managing director Russell Galley, and is due to pent-up demand, low housing supply and the Stamp Duty cut.

However, the temporary nature of the last factor and the inherent uncertainty of the broader pandemic-hit economy leads Galley to add that in the medium-term, “a weakening in labour market conditions would lead us to expect greater downward pressure on prices.”

Benham and Reeves director of London lettings Marc von Grundherr is enthusiastic. He says: “These figures may have been met with surprise just a few months ago, but this is no longer the case given the monumental shift in buyer sentiment and the dramatically different market we now find ourselves in.

“There is a good chance price growth will tail off towards the end of the year, but this is likely to be a seasonal influence more than anything.

“The end of the furlough scheme will have economic implications. However, those pre-empting potential unemployment come October are unlikely to be transacting now. So, it’s unlikely to present the bump in the road that many are predicting where the property market is concerned, at least.”

And north London estate agent Jeremy Leaf comments: “We are pinching ourselves as strong pent-up demand for most types of property, especially small houses, and much of it brought forward by the stamp duty holiday, is supporting an upsurge in the number of sales agreed. reversing last month’s downturn. The increase in new listings is particularly welcome as it is providing more choice to buyers and helping keep prices in check.

“Looking forward, we are being told the housing market revival will be tested by rising unemployment and the imminent end of the furlough scheme, but there’s not much evidence of a slowdown at the moment.”

However, others are more concerned, especially where first-time buyers are concerned. Trussle head of mortgages Miles Robinson says: “Only time will tell whether this recovery is a long-term trend, or simply a ‘mini boom’. We’re living in a time where many people’s finances have been impacted and household finances are stretched, so any growth we’re seeing now could well be short-lived.

“It’s important to consider that rising house prices may be positive for the market, but some groups of home buyers will not necessarily see this as good news. First time-buyers are facing challenging times. Not only do rising house prices mean they will now be getting less for their money, but this comes alongside a shrinking range of high LTV products available, increasing costs for mortgages and intensifying scrutiny from lenders.

“The impact is that many FTBs may feel locked out of the market. In recent weeks we’ve seen some lenders reintroduce higher-LTV products. We hope this trend continues as more support for FTBs buyers is desperately needed.”

Coreco managing director Andrew Montlake adds his concern for FTBs, too. He says: “Landlords are making hay while the Stamp Duty sun shines and are especially active with holiday lets.

“Many people are also looking to take advantage of the Stamp Duty holiday to buy second homes.

“For FTBs, the picture is far less rosy. The stamp duty holiday has become academic as the people who it was intended for are least likely to be able to make use of it as borrowing at higher LTVs is increasingly difficult. It’s a classic fiscal clanger.

“The property market at present is a classic case of the Haves and the Have-Nots.”

Glenhawk chief executive Guy Harrington adds: “It might be all smiles now, but yesterday’s Bank of England forecast made for depressing reading and the imminent unemployment car crash when furlough ends will bring the market rapidly down to earth.

“The government should be applauded for its stimulus efforts, the latest being the 30 percent discount for FTBs proposed in Wednesday’s White Paper, but sadly it’s going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better.”


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