Average house prices fall in October by 4.1% Mortgage Strategy

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The average house prices in England and Wales fell in October by some £15,700, or -4.1%, and now stands at £362,777, latest data from e.surv Acadata House Price Index showed.

This is the biggest fall in house prices since August 2009 when the housing market was recovering from the aftermath of the banking crisis of 2007/2010.

The negative rate of change follows almost 14 months of consecutive drops in value, from a peak growth rate of +12.7% in August 2022.

Despite the fall, some hot spots remain with house prices in City of Westminster up by 13.6%.

The survey, which was published today (9 Nov), also showed that mortgage transactions are still trailing 2022 levels.

The annual price change in England and Wales in October 2023, for both mortgage and cash-based house purchases, was an arithmetic average of -4.1%.

The rate of -4.1% in October is -0.7% below the revised rate of -3.4% for September 2023, and – with the exception of May 2023 – represents the fourteenth month in succession in which the annual rate of house price growth has slowed from the peak of +12.7% in August 2022.

The average house price now stands at £362,777, which is close to the price seen in February 2022, some twenty-one months earlier, according to the e.surv data.

Monthly Change in prices Average house prices fell by some £1,600, or -0.4%, in October 2023, compared to £1,760, or -0.5% in September 2023.

This was the twelfth month in succession in which the average price paid for a home has fallen, making the total reduction in 2023 some -£13,900.

However, as referred to earlier, this total needs to be contrasted with the near £47,600 increase in prices that has taken place since the start of the pandemic – most homeowners are therefore still likely to have gained considerable equity in their property over this period, despite the recent price falls.

E.surv director Richard Sexton said: “Despite the current dip in property prices, the market is supported by a robust labour market and improving affordability. Furthermore, the upcoming Autumn Statement could support sales volumes and pricing in the coming months if the government introduces supportive measures for both ends of the market, such as stamp duty relief for downsizers and assistance for first-time homebuyers. As such, we eagerly await the Autumn statement to see if it will include specific measures to support the market.”

John Tindale and Peter Williams, Acadata senior analysts, added that “it is impossible to say precisely what may be announced, as the policy decisions are often taken only in the last 24 hours.

“The Treasury may also yet again reach for its time-honoured but flawed solution of a cut in Stamp Duty. At this moment, and as we have reported, the cooling of the housing market continues with prices falling in both real and nominal terms.”


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