This is the consensus view of analysts however they don’t think the vote will be unanimous with, with two hawkish Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members expected to favour no change.

EY ITEM Club chief economic advisor Matt Swannell pointed out that at its June meeting, the MPC was clear around its intention to reduce interest rates further, and most of the committee will likely have seen enough since to deliver another cut at its August meeting.

“While upward revisions to official estimates of payrolled employees will have eased some concerns around job market prospects, the labour market has still weakened and pay growth has cooled more quickly than the Bank of England’s May forecast.

“However, signs of lingering price pressures will mean the committee remains cautious, with two of the hawkish MPC members expected to favour no change. Inflation has risen by more than the Bank of England expected three months ago. The increase in food prices is particularly important to the MPC as it feeds through to households’ inflation expectations, one of the Committee’s key gauges around the risk of inflation persistence.”

Analysts at Goldman Sachs take a similar stance. They highlight that incoming growth and inflation data have been mixed. The recent GDP data has been weaker than expected and the unemployment rate has risen above the BoE’s forecast.

Inflation, however, again surprised to the upside with services inflation running 15bp above the BoE’s May forecast. BoE commentary since June has reiterated the “gradual and careful” approach to lowering Bank Rate.

Goldman Sachs believes another 25bp Bank Rate cut is therefore highly likely next week. It expects the updated forecasts to show a firmer near-term inflation path given a higher run rate and increases in energy prices since May.

But the medium-term forecasts are likely to be little changed, with upward pressure from trade policy changes partially offset by an increased margin of labour market slack.

In its analysts report it says: “We believe that a 6-1-2 vote split—with Dhingra preferring a larger cut but Pill and Mann dissenting in favour of a hold—is the most likely outcome. The risks around this look two-sided, with either just one vote for a hold (most likely Pill) or no votes for a larger cut also possible.”

Swanwell concluded:“The MPC has appeared more worried about cutting rates too quickly rather than too slowly. This isn’t expected to change, and signs that some inflationary pressures remain will likely prompt the MPC to maintain its guidance that further cuts in Bank Rate will be ‘gradual and careful’.

“While this is not a promise to continue to cut interest rates once per quarter, it seems likely that this trend will continue going forward.”

Last month, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said: “I think the path [for interest rates] is down. I really do believe the path is downward, but we continue to use the words ‘gradual and careful’ because … some people say to me, ‘Why are you cutting when inflation is above target?’”