Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates edged higher last Friday. But earlier falls meant they closed the week lower than they started it. Though only by the smallest measurable amount. And current rates remain incredibly low by historical standards.

Unfortunately, early movements in markets suggest mortgage rates today might rise again. But it’s always possible that could change as the hours pass.

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

My view remains that mortgage rates are more likely to rise overall than fall in the coming weeks and months. But there will inevitably be brief periods when they temporarily ease lower.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time last Friday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose to 1.62% from 1.57%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were mostly lower soon after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices increased to $83.39 from $82.34 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity. 
• Gold prices inched lower to $1,768 from $1,769 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — climbed to 53 from 48 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to increase again. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Oct 18th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that previously existed

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

There were some disappointing figures emerging from Beijing overnight. Gross domestic product in China was down a little compared to forecasts and the country’s industrial production missed expectations by a wider margin. We’ll see how markets react here as investors digest the data during today.

Poor economic data that can affect the US (as China’s may) often lower mortgage rates. But, so far, that hasn’t been the case today. And, right now, bond investors may be too engrossed in the big picture to notice anything that isn’t startling. And that big picture currently contains three key elements:

1. The likely imminent winding down of the Federal Reserve’s “quantitative easing” (cheap money) policies. One of those has been keeping mortgage rates artificially low through the pandemic
2. Warm-to-hot inflation that’s proving more persistent than many expected
3. Consistently falling COVID-19 infection rates in the US since Sept. 13

Unfortunately, all three of those are likely to push mortgage rates higher in coming weeks and months. Meanwhile, forces likely to drag them lower seem to me to be much less powerful and obvious — at least for now.