Pre-covid house price growth hits 3.3% in Q1: IHS Markit - Mortgage Strategy

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Annual house price growth reached 3.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 before the coronavirus pandemic hit the property market, new figures reveal.

The latest quarterly regional breakdown from IHS Markit, which produces the Halifax index, shows that average prices reached £240,257 across the UK in the first three months of this year.

Prices were also up notably since the end of 2019, with an increase of 2.1 per cent from Q4 to Q1 – the largest quarterly increase for four years.

Northern Ireland saw the strongest annual growth of all UK nations and regions, with prices up by 6.8 per cent to £148,889.

This was followed by the North West, with growth of 4.6 per cent to £179,239, the West Midlands with growth of 4.4 per cent to £203,787 and Scotland with growth of 4 per cent to £171,347.

Meanwhile Wales and Yorkshire & Humberside both saw growth of more than 3 per cent, surpassing the national average.

London and the South East recorded their first annual price gains since late 2018 in the first quarter, with inflation of 2.3 per cent and 2.8 per cent respectively.

Eastern England and the South West both saw the strongest growth for over a year at 1.2 per cent and 1.7 per cent. 

IHS Markit economics director Paul Smith says “Although the latest data provide an indication of an improving housing market following the strong uplift to activity afforded to buyers and vendors from the greater political certainty seen at the end of 2019, it’s hard not to look ahead to the coming months given the outlook is now dominated by the covid-19 pandemic.

“With that in mind, the first quarter data feel backward looking. Whilst confirming the market was on a positive trajectory, as activity strengthened following a clarification over Brexit and the decisive general election result, the direction of travel is now characterised by considerable uncertainty.”

“Amid reports of viewings being cancelled and movers encouraged to put transactions on hold, the market is currently in deep-freeze.

“More worryingly, the challenging macroenvironment, with business closures, joblessness rising and cuts to incomes occurring, all points to a general downward pressure on prices in the near-term.

“The ultimate scale of the impact of the pandemic on the market will ultimately depend on the speed in which it can be brought under control. 

“Encouragingly, however, actions by government and the Bank of England are likely to provide strong support to the economy – and in turn the housing market – when some form of normality resumes.”


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