House price rises in England and Wales are set for a calmer summer before slipping into negative numbers in September, according to Reallymoving.

The firm says that house prices will increase by 3.8% in July, by 0.4% in August and then slide downwards by 0.1% in September with an average price agreed of £343,968.

This would mean a September annual increase of 6.3%

This forecast is derived from the data contained in conveyancing quote forms, the volume of which dropped by 13% in May and 18% in June, which Reallymoving translates as falling demand for houses.

It puts this down to the ending of stamp duty holiday.

Reallymoving chief executive Rob Houghton explains: “With the influence of the stamp duty holiday now largely expired alongside early signs that buyer demand is returning to more normal levels, we can expect prices to follow suit and return to a more stable trajectory.

“Despite this period of readjustment, we believe the market will continue to perform well over the longer term. Working arrangements for many people are yet to be tested and finalised, with the rise in home-working no doubt continuing to drive home movers for some time to come.

“There will be a contingent of buyers who realised pretty quickly that rising prices were wiping out any tax savings and decided to hold off until the market cooled, who, along with first-time buyers who largely didn’t benefit from the stamp duty saving, may decide to make their move later this year.”