
Annual rate of house price growth slowed to 3.4% in April, from 3.9% in March according to the latest Nationwide House Price Index. The data also reveals house prices down 0.6% month-on-month.
Commenting on the figures, Nationwide chief economist Robert Gardner said the softening in house price growth was to be expected, given the changes to stamp duty at the start of the month.
“Early indications suggest there was a significant jump in transactions in March, with buyers bringing forward their purchases to avoid additional tax obligations.
“The market is likely to remain a little soft in the coming months, following the pattern typically observed following the end of stamp duty holidays. Nevertheless, activity is likely to pick up steadily as summer progresses, despite wider economic uncertainties in the global economy, since underlying conditions for potential home buyers in the UK remain supportive.”
He added: Unemployment remains low, earnings are rising at a healthy pace in real terms (i.e. after accounting for inflation), household balance sheets are strong and borrowing costs are likely to moderate a little if the Bank rate is lowered further in the coming quarters as we and most other analysts expect. Indeed, swap rates (which underpin fixed rate mortgage pricing) have moderated in recent weeks.”
Garrington Property Finders chief executive Jonathan Hopper pointed out that in some parts of the UK, the supply of homes for sale was now far outstripping demand.
“This is especially true in more expensive, and often highly desirable, areas where the trickle of supply has turned into a flood.
“In these areas, buyers find themselves blessed with both abundant choice and considerable negotiating power – and this is keeping prices flat or even nudging them down.”
Fine & Country managing director Jonathan Handford insisted the cooling came as no surprise, given that many buyers brought forward their purchases to beat the March threshold change, leaving a quieter pipeline in the immediate aftermath.
He said the outlook was being shaped not only by domestic inflation data but also by global headwinds — including the potential disruption caused by changes to global trade. However, this could also prompt UK policymakers to act faster to support growth and ease lending conditions.
“Even so, challenges persist. In many high-cost areas, house prices remain out of reach for a significant share of aspiring buyers. Stricter lending rules and large deposit requirements continue to shut many out of the market, despite signs that broader financial conditions may improve.”
He added: “April’s slowdown reflects a natural rebalancing after a period of deadline-driven demand. But with inflation softening and rate cuts increasingly likely, the market could regain momentum later this year, provided affordability barriers are addressed.”
On the Market president Jason Tebb said that although a number of buyers brought forward transactions to take advantage of the stamp duty concession, there was still plenty of activity in the market now this incentive was no longer available.
“Other inducements – such as interest rate reductions – are even more essential. Two quarter-point base-rate cuts in the second half of last year, followed by one so far this year, have noticeably boosted sentiment and transactions. All eyes are on the Bank of England to see whether it will follow up with another cut next week – if it does, this will give added impetus in May and June, which have the potential to be busy months for the market.”