The latest data from HMRC shows that on a seasonally adjusted basis, residential transactions in February show a second consecutive month-on-month increase, rising 1% from 81,930 in January 2024 to 82,940 in February 2024.
However, year-on-year, seasonally adjusted residential transactions remain 6% lower than in February 2023 and non-seasonally adjusted transactions are down 3%.
Commenting on the latest numbers Jackson-Stops chairman Nick Leeming said: “Whilst today’s figures show signs of stability, recent falls in inflation and the expectation that the Bank of England will cut the base rate in May is paving the way for a spring bounce.
“Home movers are 17% more active than this time last year according to our own national network of offices, indicating a potential uplift to come in the months ahead. The return of sub-4% mortgage rates and a notable uplift in supply is giving buyers greater choice, and affordability is also expected to further improve as the year progresses”.
He added: “It’s important to remember that these figures represent the final stage of the market and the increased buyer interest that we are seeing now serves a longer term trend of market buoyancy. Spring is in bloom, and this is a remarkably positive sign for the market ahead in a general election year that needs to show strength and resilience.
Former RICS residential chairman and London estate agent Jeremy Leaf said the HMRC figures were interesting as unlike lender house-price indices they also include cash purchases, which make up around 40% of total transactions, so are a good indicator as to what’s really happening in the market.
“However, because they reflect activity from the end of last year and beginning of 2024, they won’t fully reflect the influence of the more stable mortgage market we are seeing, partly prompted by falling inflation.
“Looking forward, we expect these mixed messages to continue for a few months at least as the market continues in recovery mode as it enters the crucial spring period.”
Target managing director Katie Pender said: “Today’s month-on-month figures are certainly hopeful, and the market looks healthier than it did at the beginning of the year. But there are still many people who are struggling to get on the housing ladder or who are bogged down in the homebuying process.
“With a potential change in government, there is uncertainty too. What we can do is to continue to support lenders and borrowers with the latest technology which is essential to speeding up decision-making and improving customer satisfaction.”
