A recovery not a boom housing transactions soar in December

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According to seasonally-adjusted estimates from HMRC there were 129,000 residential transactions in December 2020. Over the month from November to December, completed house sales increased by 13.1%, the data revealed.

Although there were a very high number of property transactions in December, as a result of the stamp duty holiday and pent up demand caused by the first lockdown, over the year the figures showed the more negative impact of the pandemic.

Indeed, Mike Scott, chief analyst at estate agency Yopa, explained the number of homes sold in the year as a whole was 1.04 million, 11.5% down from the 1.18 million in 2019.

“This is a good result,” he said, “since the housing market was effectively closed from late March to mid-May, and means that there was a considerable amount of catch-up in the second half of the year.

“This is still in progress, boosted by the impending deadline to take advantage of the stamp duty holiday.”

But, Anna Clare Harper, chief executive of asset manager SPI Capital, was less impressed. She said: “These figures represent recovery rather than boom.

“Right now, property transactions are being encouraged by the temporary Stamp Duty reduction. We are also seeing the release of pent-up demand and supply from earlier in the year, when it was very difficult to buy to sell a property.

“Transactions have been dominated by second-time buyers, typically trading up to improve their surroundings, rather than first-time buyers ‘getting a foot on the ladder’.

Bottle neck

For Richard Pike, Phoebus Software’s sales and marketing director, however, these statistics offered evidence that mortgage transactions were, in December at least, going through to completion despite concerns there were delays.

He added: “There is likely to be something of a bottleneck in the next eight to 10 weeks though, as the push to beat the SDLT holiday deadline takes hold.

“It is also reassuring that lenders (according to the latest Credit Conditions Survey this morning) are expecting the availability of secured credit to increase to the end of February.  For those hoping to secure a mortgage before the 31 March deadline this will offer some encouragement.

“The next hurdle will be getting those transactions over the line before the deadline.  This is now something that looks unlikely to change, especially as yesterday the latest petition to government was put on ice, along with all petitions until Westminster Hall opens again.

“The disappointing thing about this particular petition is that there is a deadline, one that is unlikely to see government back in parliament to debate in time.”