UK annual house price growth picked up to 2.2% in March, from 1.0% in February, the latest Nationwide house price index reveals.
Prices increased by 0.9% month on month, after taking account of seasonal effects.
Data found Northern Ireland was the best performing area in Q1 2026, with prices up 9.5% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, outer South East weakest performing region, with prices down 0.7% compared with Q1 2025.
Nationwide chief economist Robert Gardner says: “The pickup in house price growth suggests that the market had regained momentum after the slowdown recorded around the turn of the year.”
“However, the sharp rise in global energy prices in response to developments in the Middle East represents a significant shock to the global economy, clouding the outlook.”
“In the near term, UK economic growth is likely to be slower and inflation higher than previously expected, although ultimately the impact will depend on the duration of the shock as well as the policy response.”
“The outlook for interest rates is particularly uncertain and dependent on whether the demand or supply side of the economy is more adversely affected.”
“Nevertheless, financial market expectations for the future path of Bank Rate have shifted dramatically. Towards the end of March, three interest rate increases were priced in over the next twelve months, compared to two rate cuts being anticipated before the strikes on Iran.”
“This shift has resulted in a sharp rise in longer term interest rates (swap rates) that underpin fixed rate mortgage pricing.”
“If sustained, this could reverse some of the improvement in housing affordability that has taken place in recent years. With consumer sentiment also likely to be dented by the uncertain outlook and the prospect of rising energy costs, housing market activity is likely to soften.”
Also commenting, Bestinvest by Evelyn Partners personal finance analyst Alice Haine says: “The growth seen in March could, however, prove to be the calm before the storm, if borrowing costs continue to climb in response to the latest geopolitical shock.”
“Escalating tensions in the Middle East have upended inflation and interest rate expectations, something that could dampen demand if buyers find it harder to secure the mortgages they need.”
Meanwhile, OnTheMarket president Jason Tebb says the data shows “just how much market activity and sentiment continued to pick up at the start of this year, with buyers and sellers proceeding with their moves with more clarity and confidence”.
“While interest rate rises, rather than previously-expected reductions, seem increasingly likely depending on inflationary pressures, six interest rate cuts in the past 20 months have greatly assisted affordability and put borrowers in a stronger position.”
Propertymark chief executive Nathan Emerson adds: “An uplift in house prices will be welcomed by the market and suggests that buyer demand remains resilient despite ongoing economic headwinds. Improved sentiment, coupled with marginally better affordability conditions earlier in the year, appears to be supporting price growth.”
“However, this upward movement must be viewed in context. Affordability remains stretched by historical standards, and any renewed pressure on inflation that may also affect base rate decisions could quickly temper this momentum.”