Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates fell yesterday — further than looked likely first thing. Remember last Thursday’s big rise? Well, movements since then have pretty much eliminated its impact.

First thing this morning, it was looking as if mortgage rates might move higher or hold steady. But, in recent days, associated markets have been unreliable indicators of where mortgage rates will go. So treat this prediction with caution.

Find and lock a low rate (Mar 3rd, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Find and lock a low rate (Mar 3rd, 2021)

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

After three working days of falling or steady mortgage rates, I’ll soon be revising my recent pessimism.

But three days really is nothing when assessing rate trends. So my personal rate lock recommendations remain the same, though you can choose to take from them what you will:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

But, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So be guided by your gut and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasurys rose to 1.48% from 1.43%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
• Major stock indexes were mixed on opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes bond prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
• Oil prices fell to $60.78 from $60.88 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*). Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.
• Gold prices fell to $1,710 from $1,725 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Fell to 54 from 64 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. The Fed is now a huge player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (meaning rates are likely to rise) or weak (meaning they could fall) to be a reliable indicator.

But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to rise or hold steady. Just be aware that intraday swings (when rates change direction during the day) are common right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Mar 3rd, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (way over $1 trillion) should put continuing downward pressure on mortgage rates. But it can’t work miracles all the time. Read “For once, the Fed DOES affect mortgage rates. Here’s why‘ if you want to understand this aspect of what’s happening
2. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care‘
3. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
5. When rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
6. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

You probably didn’t need me to tell you yesterday just how terrible a month February had been for mortgage rates. And it shouldn’t come as a surprise that March has kicked off with some corrections.

The question is: Are we looking at just a brief and shallow series of falls? Or is this the start of something sustained and helpful?

Honestly, nobody can be sure. As you know, mortgage rates often shadow yields on 10-year Treasury bonds. And those are having a mini-crisis at the moment.

This morning’s Financial Times carried the headline, “Treasury bond wobble heightens concerns on health of $21 trillion market.” And it went on to urge US regulators to “address market function issues.”

When such unknowables arise, my instinct is to be cautious. But if you are more adventurous and choose to take a chance on further falls, I couldn’t blame you. You just need to recognize the risk and be ready to act quickly if this downward trend suddenly evaporates.

For more background on my wider thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday soon after 10 a.m. (ET).

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. New, weekly all-time lows were set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

But rates then rose. Freddie’s Feb. 25 report puts that weekly average at 2.97%, up from the previous week’s 2.81%, and the highest it’s been since mid-2020.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector, and mortgage rates.

Here are their current rates forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1/21, Q2/21, Q3/21, and Q4/21).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s and the MBA’s were updated on Feb. 18 and 19 respectively. But Freddie now publishes forecasts quarterly and its figures are from mid-January:

Forecaster	Q1/21	Q2/21	Q3/21	Q4/21
Fannie Mae	2.8%	2.8%	2.9%	2.9%
Freddie Mac	2.9%	2.9%	3.0%	3.0%
MBA	2.8%	3.1%	3.3%	3.4%

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there’s certainly a widening spread as the year progresses.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. You can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment property mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

Of course, you should be comparison shopping widely no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Mar 3rd, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology