
The pace of the Bank of England’s base rate cuts has been “too rapid” given the pressures on inflation, said the central bank’s chief economist.
“My starting point is that the pace of Bank Rate reduction should be ‘cautious’, running slower than the 25 basis points per quarter we have implemented since last August,” Huw Pill (pictured) pointed out, who is also a member of the BoE’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee.
The MPC voted to cut the base rate by a quarter point to 4.25% earlier this month in a three-way split that saw Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor press for a larger half-point reduction, while Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill urged hold.
The move was the committee’s fourth rate reduction since August.
Rate-setters began reducing the base rate “slightly too early” last year, and now the economy’s “disinflationary momentum has shown signs of stuttering,” said Pill at a conference hosted by Barclays in London this morning.
Inflation is set to jump to around 3.5% from 2.6%, as a range of index-linked bills and taxes take effect, when official cost-of-living data is released on Wednesday.
The rise is expected to come from a range of factors spanning higher energy, water and council tax bills, to uplifts in National Living Wage and employer National Insurance Contributions.
Pill said: “I am concerned about the potential inflationary impact of structural changes in price and wage setting behaviour, following the experience of prolonged, well above-target inflation in recent years.”
He added: “As long as disinflation back to target is not complete, maintenance of some restriction will still be required.
“On my reading, that is a view that is held across a broad swathe of MPC members.”
The Bank’s May forecast lifted its outlook for the UK economy to grow by 1% this year, marking an upgrade from the 0.75% growth predicted in its February report.
Money markets expect between two and three further cuts this year to boost a subdued economy that faces tariff uncertainties.
However, many economists predict that the Monetary Policy Committee may pause rate reductions at its next 19 June meeting to gauge how hot prices are running across the economy.