Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates edged lower yesterday. Such falls are always welcome. But recently they’ve been outweighed by mostly small rises. Still, these rates are a little lower than they were at the start of the week.

Unfortunately, that happy situation may not last the day. Because it’s looking as if mortgage rates might rise today, perhaps appreciably.

Find and lock a low rate (Mar 12th, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Find and lock a low rate (Mar 12th, 2021)

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

The same things that, I hope, are making you optimistic about your personal financial future are the ones that are exerting upward pressure on mortgage rates. Until they go away, I’m expecting those rates to continue climbing.

Right now, there’s little sign of those reasons for hope suddenly disappearing. Of course, if they do, mortgage rates could fall again. But how likely is that?

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

But, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So be guided by your gut and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasurys soared to 1.62% from 1.53%. (Very bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
• Major stock indexes were mostly lower on opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
• Oil prices were higher at $65.73, up from $65.00 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
• Gold prices fell to $1,700 from $1,721 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Jumped to 61 from 54 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to rise, perhaps appreciably. Just be aware that intraday swings (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Mar 12th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care‘
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

Regular readers won’t be surprised that mortgage rates look likely to rise today. The White House delivered a double whammy yesterday to those who want them lower.

First, President Joe Biden signed into law The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, his $1.9-trillion pandemic relief package. And, secondly, in a later TV address, he updated the nation on his vaccination plan.

That involved all American adults having access to a vaccine from May 1. And the hope of a return to some form of normal life by Independence Day.

Both these are catnip to investors. And are likely to push mortgage rates higher today — and probably keep them there for a while.

This morning’s producer price index for final demand won’t have helped keep mortgage rates down. That’s an indicator of future inflation. And it came in hotter today than most analysts had expected. Unfortunately, future inflation is another force that’s pushing up these rates.

So it may be time to recognize that the chances of our seeing another record low set for mortgage rates are rapidly diminishing. Absent some huge, unexpected blow to the economy, I suspect those may already be history.

For more background on my wider thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday soon after 10 a.m. (ET).

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But rates then rose. And Freddie’s Mar. 11 report puts that weekly average at 3.05% (with 0.6 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 3.02%.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector, and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1/21, Q2/21, Q3/21, and Q4/21).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s and the MBA’s were updated on Feb. 18 and 19 respectively. But Freddie now publishes forecasts quarterly and its figures are from mid-January:

Forecaster	Q1/21	Q2/21	Q3/21	Q4/21
Fannie Mae	2.8%	2.8%	2.9%	2.9%
Freddie Mac	2.9%	2.9%	3.0%	3.0%
MBA	2.8%	3.1%	3.3%	3.4%

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there’s certainly a widening spread as the year progresses.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Mar 12th, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology