UK resi transactions fall by over a quarter Mortgage Finance Gazette

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UK residential transactions have fallen by 27% over the past year, new data from HMRC reveals.

There were 80,020 transactions in May 2023, 3% lower than recorded in April.

Meanwhile, the number of UK non-residential transactions in May stood at 9,460 – 16% lower than the same period last year.

However, the decline over the last month – from April to May – was less than 1%.

Brokers have attributed the figures to a combination of higher swap rates, as well as rising interest rates and soaring inflation.

North London estate agent and former RICS residential chairman Jeremy Leaf, says: “Transactions always provide a more accurate reflection of market health than property prices.

“Mortgage upheaval and inflation concerns have meant fewer buyers and more protracted negotiations, which is resulting in fewer transactions.”

SPF Private Client chief executive Mark Harris says: “Transaction numbers continue to come under pressure in the face of higher interest rates and the cost of living.

“Swap rates, which underpin the pricing of fixed-rate mortgages, continue to rise.

“As a result, lenders are still repricing their fixed rates upwards so borrowers coming up to remortgage or looking for a new deal would be wise to seek advice from a broker and consider securing a rate sooner rather than later.”

Property lender MT Finance’s managing director Gareth Lewis says: “Reassuringly, transaction numbers haven’t fallen off a cliff and while there is a slower flow, people are still moving.

“This slowdown is understandable given the considerable factors impacting buyers and homemovers.

“We are also hearing from brokers that many borrowers seem to be in a holding pattern, sitting on lenders’ standard variable rates in the hope that mortgage rates will come down sooner rather than later.”

The property data insight and technology provider Search Acumen says the industry ‘needs a sharp end to sticky inflation’.

Director Andy Sommerville says the figures ‘show a continuation of the low transaction levels we have become accustomed to in 2023’.

He adds: “In financially challenging times, debt continues to be a key driver in transaction volumes.

“The industry needs a sharp end to sticky inflation to provide market stability across the rest of the year.”

LiveMore managing director of capital markets and finance, Simon Webb, said the figures ‘reflected the overall slowdown in the housing market’.

“This subdued housing market is also evidenced through falling house prices from the highs of a year ago, more properties are for sale in the market but there are fewer buyers,” he adds.

Just Mortgages’ national operations director, John Phillips, says: “Following a surprisingly strong March, the April slowdown has continued into May.

“It is shifting times in the housing market with widespread disappointment that interest rates climbed a further 0.5% to 5% this month.

“We fully expect transactions to increase over the coming months as interest rates fall and inflation reduces the cost-of-living burden.”