Forecast plus what’s driving mortgage rates today

Average mortgage rates fell again yesterday. But it was a smaller drop than those on the two preceding days. Still, every little bit helps. And they’re now nearly as low as they were on March 27, before last week’s big rises.

Mortgage rates remain insulated from markets. And that’s just as well because those are currently clutching at straws (doubtful oil deals and statistically questionable data about COVID-19 most recently) that must surely generate extra volatility. Read on to discover the Federal Reserve’s role in keeping those rates in check.

Predicting what will happen to mortgage rates today remains impossible — and will do so until they get back into alignment with other markets. But we remain optimistic that the Fed will prevent the most serious rises and maybe push them lower in coming days and weeks.

Market data affecting (or not) today’s mortgage rates

We still see no reason to think markets are currently providing many clues as to what may happen to mortgage rates today. But, in the hope you have insights that we’re missing, here’s the state of play. By approaching 10 a.m. (ET), the data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday morning, were:

• Major stock indexes were again appreciably higher. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
• Gold prices held steady at $1,690 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower. But if they’re not worried now …
• Oil prices moved lower to $24.82 a barrel from $26.39 (Good for mortgage rates* because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
• The yield on 10-year Treasurys held steady at 0.75%. A year ago, it was at 2.50%. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
•  CNN Business Fear & Greed index inched lower to 29 from 30 out of a possible 100 points. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

We should brace ourselves for one or more rises in mortgage rates soon. But nobody knows when those will come. Because mortgage rates remain untethered from markets and markets from reality. Still, we hope the Fed will hold the line against investors who’d like those rates to be higher. And that an overall downward trend will emerge.

Rate lock advice

Based on today’s mortgage rates and market movements, I personally recommend:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• FLOAT if closing in 45 days
• FLOAT if closing in 60 days

But it’s entirely your decision.

The Fed might end up pushing down rates over the coming weeks, though that’s far from certain. And you can expect plenty of bad days.

More importantly, the coronavirus has created massive uncertainty — and disruption that seems capable of defying in the short term all human efforts, including perhaps the Fed’s. So locking or floating is a gamble either way.

This week

How the Fed’s helping mortgage rates

In an announcement on March 23, the Federal Reserve said it was lifting the previous cap on its purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBSs). For now, there would be no limit on how much it would spend buying these.

MBSs are bond-like instruments: bundles of mortgages that are traded on a secondary market. Picture a tall pile of different closing documents tied up with string and you’re probably getting the concept of an MBS, even if the reality is often more digital. Chances are, your existing mortgage is tied up in just such a bundle and forms part of one MBS.

And it’s the going price of these bundles on that secondary market that more than anything else determines your next mortgage rate.

For reasons explained near the end of this article, the higher the price of MBSs, the lower the rate you’ll pay. Given that the Fed is a uniquely huge new buyer in that market, it should generate increased demand that raises MBS prices and so creates lower yields and mortgage rates.

Monday’s Financial Times reports, “The US central bank bought more than $1m of assets per second over past two weeks.” [Our emphasis.] While MBSs are only a part of those purchases, the Fed’s clearly not holding back.

So that’s the theory. But we’ve seen a lot of those crumble to dust in recent weeks. And only time will tell how well this one holds up in practice.

Challenges to the Fed’s program

That Fed program has so far had only a limited effect on mortgage rates. Indeed, it was only on Tuesday that they first dipped lower than they were on March 23, when unlimited purchases were announced. So how come they’re not already much lower?

Well, there’s a lot going on here. But a big reason may be a resurgence in new applications from consumers for mortgages and especially refinances. During the seven days ending March 27 those were up 168% on the same period in 2019, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

But its latest figures, released this morning, suggest that excess demand was easing off during the week ending April 3. However, applications were still 144% higher than they were a year earlier.

Investors hate refinances, especially if they’re for mortgages that are recent. Each sees a mortgage pulled from an MBS bundle — and a reduction of income and profit on that MBS. Some investors make losses on especially fast refinancings.

So the last thing they want is to replace lost mortgages with ones at an even lower rate. And, understandably, they shy away from MBSs. But supply and demand mean that inevitably pushes up mortgage rates.

So the Fed is trying to resist the market forces that arise when investors vote so decisively with their feet. We still think it likely (though far from certain) that it will get its way in the end and push mortgage rates somewhat lower. But don’t expect a smooth ride.

Fly meets ointment

Last Thursday, National Mortgage Professional (NMP) magazine led with this:

Moody’s has announced that it has changed its outlook on the non-bank mortgage sector from “Stable” to “Negative,” as liquidity issues continue to cause concern amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Non-bank mortgage companies currently originate and service more than half of all residential mortgages in the U.S.

In other words, many of the companies that originate mortgages but that aren’t actual banks are having cash flow problems arising from COVID-19. Ratings agency Moody’s expects them to get over those in a year or so. But, in the meantime, that could cause supply issues in the residential mortgage market.

And, of course, a reduced supply of any product tends to push prices (or rates in this case) upward. This happens further down the mortgage production line than where the Fed is tinkering. So we may see (or have already seen) higher rates that are unconnected with MBS prices.

No federal help for nonbank mortgage lenders yet

On Monday, NMP reported that mortgage industry lobbyists were calling on government regulators to fill the liquidity gap. But, yesterday, the same publication revealed:

The hope for a dedicated facility for federally backed liquidity has been crushed after Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Mark Calabria revealed there will not be one.

Right now, it seems the FHFA wants to rely on government-sponsored enterprises, principally Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, to manage these issues.

You can now understand why we said there’s a lot going on here.

More pain ahead?

Investors continue to ignore the possibility of a nasty financial hangover after the stimulus. Last Thursday, we learned from official figures that very nearly 10 million Americans had filed new claims for unemployment insurance within the previous two weeks. And on March 25, The New York Times quoted analysts at the Eurasia Group:

The U.S. is likely on pace for an annual deficit of at least $4 trillion and likely higher, in the range of 15-20 percent of G.D.P. [gross domestic product].

Two weeks on, and legislators are already working on a new stimulus bill that could take the deficit above that range.

Some economists subscribe to modern monetary theory (MMT), which says we shouldn’t be too bothered by large national debts and deficits. But many still will be.

Unemployment could soar

Social media have recently started sharing widely some scary employment numbers contained in a blog published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on March 24. It predicted 47.05 million Americans could be laid off during the second quarter (April through June) of this year, bringing the unemployment rate to 32.1%.

To be fair, the author stressed that this was just one possible outcome based on a model containing several assumptions. And even he referred to them as “back-of-the-envelope estimates.”

But we’ve already seen 10 million jobs lost in two weeks, So that projection may not be as fanciful as it appeared when it was first published. And if COVID-19 gets that sort of grip on the American economy (and presumably something similar globally), we could be looking at a transformed world.

Yesterday, United Nations agency the International Labor Organization revealed its worldwide employment projections for the current quarter. And it believed that there would be an overall cut of 7% in working hours. Doesn’t sound too bad? Well, it’s the equivalent of 195 million full-time jobs.

Closing help …

Closing on a real estate transaction is hard enough without the extra obstacles erected by social distancing and lockdowns. So some are trying to dismantle the biggest barriers.

Legislators are currently working on a law that could further facilitate remote, electronic signing of closing documents. That’s generally already legal under the Electronic Signatures in Global and National Commerce Act (E-Sign) and various state laws. But a new bipartisan bill is intended to make it easier and more commonplace.

And Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and probably others are being less strict about some aspects of verification. So, perhaps, your employer, working from home without access to paper files, may be able to certify your employment by email rather than provide documentary evidence.

Meanwhile, those wanting Fannie, Freddie, FHA and VA loans may find laxer appraisal procedures. All those organizations (and maybe others) are extending their acceptance of exterior-only or “drive-by” appraisals — and even wholly remote ones based on desktop research of the home and local property market.

… But a big issue for closings

But another obstacle may prove more difficult to surmount. Many county recording offices have been closed.

And, without access to the title searches and deed filings those provide, some purchases and refinancings may stall. The industry is working to overcome this obstacle. But its response is patchy, as legal website JD Supra reports:

Title insurance companies have issued underwriting bulletins confirming they will provide title insurance coverage for transactions that occur when recording offices will not accept documents for recording. Each title company has its own requirements and limitations, so it is important to confirm those requirements on a closing-by-closing basis.

An economist writes …

On March 16, realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale thought lower rates were coming. “That [Fed buying of MBSs] should stabilize rates and bring them back down lower,” she said on her employer’s website. “They’ll [likely] go back to the low 3% [range]. Might we see rates below 3%? I wouldn’t rule it out.”

Those still aren’t unreasonable predictions. However, they’re not universally shared so you shouldn’t rely on them. Last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s team of economists forecast that the rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage would average 3.6% between now and the start of October — a higher rate than they were forecasting in March.

Virus still the biggest factor for mortgage rates

COVID-19 stands for COronaVIrus Disease 2019 and refers to the disease. SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) is the name of the virus itself. But, whatever you call it, it’s certainly been behind the chaos seen in global markets since Feb. 20. Gosh, a lot can happen in less than seven weeks.

The virus now has a confirmed presence on five continents (none in Antarctica) and in 209 countries and territories. Overnight figures show COVID-19 has been confirmed in 1,450,086 (up from 1,363,123 yesterday) cases around the world, and has killed 83,466 (up from yesterday’s 76,383).

Here at home, the US has 400,549 cases, up from 368,174 yesterday. It ranks No. 1 on a list of countries with the most infections. And now well over one-in-four of those who have or have had the disease live in America, in spite of our being home to fewer than one-in-20 of the global population.

And, with 12,857, we are third for COVID-19-related deaths, although considerably lower on a per capita basis. But we’re at an earlier stage of infection than those with higher numbers. So the prospects are grim.

COVID-19 hitting biggest economies hard

Of the world’s top-10 economies, eight now count their infections in the tens of thousands or, in the case of America, Italy and Germany (Spain has the 13th biggest GDP), more than 100,000. The other two have infections in the thousands.

With the exception of Iran and Turkey, the worst-hit nations are major economies. That’s probably because those are so interconnected and so many people routinely move between them for business or pleasure.

But an even bigger human tragedy may emerge later in less developed countries, many of which lack medical resources and expertise while having some densely packed slums in which isolation and social distancing are next to impossible.

While markets are made up of people who share the fear and empathy of the rest of humanity, their focus isn’t directly on COVID-19’s health implications. Their concern when trading is the virus’s economic consequences, which are a byproduct of the medical ones.

Domestic economic worries

On Monday, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon published his latest letter to shareholders. These pronouncements are taken seriously on Wall Street, where they’re effectively required reading.

Mr. Dimon wrote that he expected COVID-19 to bring a “bad recession.” And he went on to predict that would be “combined with some kind of financial stress similar to the global financial crisis of 2008.”

Also on Monday, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told CNBC, “This is a huge, unprecedented, devastating hit.” She went on to express her opinion that US unemployment is already running at 12% or 13%.

This morning, The New York Times reported:

A recent Deutsche Bank analysis looking ‘beyond the abyss’ reckons that, compared with pre-virus trend growth, the U.S. and European economies will be $2 trillion smaller by year end, and still $1 trillion smaller at the end of 2021.

The American people know

This is beginning to be more widely understood by the American people. The Pew Research Center has recently been tracking how they feel. When polled during March 10-16, 70% perceived COVID-19 as a threat to the American economy and 34% saw it as a threat to their own finances. But when asked again between March 19 and 24, those numbers had risen to 88% and 49% respectively.

And, among respondents who gave an answer, 17% expected a depression, 48% a recession and 34% an economic slowdown.

Meanwhile, a new poll of American residents from the Peter G Peterson Foundation was published on Monday. In it, 73% of respondents reported that their income had already been hit, while 24% said their cut affected them “very significantly.”

Central banks face problems

Traditionally, central banks intervene during troubled times to prop up their economies. And they mostly have in response to COVID-19. But markets have often reacted badly to those interventions.

And, with much of their armory already depleted, some are wondering how much more they can do. “Whatever it takes” is a better slogan than plan.

However, toward the end of March, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell took to the airwaves to assure investors that his organization will “never run out of ammunition.” And that statistic mentioned above, that the Fed’s recently been buying assets at a rate of $1 million a second, suggests he’s prepared to put his money where his mouth is.

Economic reports this week

Domestic economic reports continue to struggle to cut through the COVID-19 gloom. True, you might be justifiably surprised that markets seemed to shrug off the grotesquely high number of new claims for unemployment insurance seen each Thursday over the last two weeks (10 million over 14 days).

But you can see why they ignore most other figures. Who cares what happened to job openings in February (out Tuesday) when everyone knows that the employment landscape today has been unrecognizably transformed since then?

So don’t expect more than one report this week to spark the smallest interest among investors. And that’s Thursday’s consumer sentiment index. That’s an April reading of how Americans are feeling, so it’s as current as possible and relevant to future markets. But even that will likely have an effect only if its numbers deliver a big surprise.

Forecasts matter

More normally, any economic report can move markets, as long as it contains news that’s shockingly good or devastatingly bad — providing that news is unexpected.

That’s because markets tend to price in analysts’ consensus forecasts (below, we use those reported by MarketWatch) in advance of the publication of reports. So it’s usually the difference between the actual reported numbers and the forecast that has the greatest effect.

And that means even an extreme difference between actuals for the previous reporting period and this one can have little immediate impact, providing that difference is expected and has been factored in ahead.

Although there are exceptions, you can usually expect downward pressure on mortgage rates from worse-than-expected figures and upward on better ones. However, for most reports, much of the time, that pressure may be imperceptible or barely perceptible.

This week’s calendar

This week’s calendar for important, domestic economic reports comprises:

• Monday: Nothing
• Tuesday: February job openings (actual 6.9 million; no forecast; 7.0 million in January)
• Wednesday: FOMC minutes*
• Thursday: weekly jobless claims (forecast 6.0 million), April consumer sentiment index (forecast 70.0 index points) and March producer price index (forecast -0.4%)
• Friday: March consumer price index (forecast -0.4%) and core CPI** (forecast +0.1%)

* FOMC is the Federal Open Market Committee. It’s the Federal Reserve body that determines that organization’s interest rates. So investors usually study the minutes of each meeting closely. And today they may be fascinated by the thinking behind some of the Fed’s most momentous decisions ever.