Forecast plus what’s driving mortgage rates today

Average mortgage rates rose moderately yesterday. No need to panic yet. That took them back to where they were last Thursday evening. So they remain very close to their all-time low.

But it’s another reminder that — within the gentle downward trend we’ve been seeing so far in 2020 — there are going to be plenty of rises. And some of those might come in clumps. So waiting until the last minute to lock your rate involves the risk of being caught in one of those clumps. But, of course, locking too soon risks your missing out on yet lower rates. We suggest you consider locking at a good moment when you’re 15-30 days out from closing.

Meanwhile, little’s changed. And we remain optimistic that, overall, the Federal Reserve (which, as you’ll discover below, is currently intervening decisively in the market for mortgage bonds) will prevent the most serious and sustained rises and may perhaps push mortgage rates even lower in coming days and weeks.

However, there’s a lot going on here. And the Fed can only influence some of the forces that affect mortgage rates. So nothing is assured. And expect some rises along the way. Read “How the Fed’s helping mortgage rates,” below, to explore the essential details.

Market data affecting (or not) today’s mortgage rates

We can still see little relationship between mortgage rates today and activity in the markets they usually follow. So we’re publishing the following only in the hope you have insights that we’re missing. Here’s the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday morning, were:

• Major stock indexes were lower. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
• Gold prices inched higher to $1,715 an ounce from $1,709. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower. But if they’re not worried now …
• Oil prices nudged up to $25.73 a barrel from $25.55 (Neutral for mortgage rates* because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
• The yield on 10-year Treasurys fell to 0.66% from 0.71%. A year ago, it was at 2.42%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though much less so recently
•  CNN Business Fear & Greed index dropped to 41 from 45 out of a possible 100 points. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Time was when we could use those markets to fairly confidently predict what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But rates are for now divorced from those markets — and those markets are untethered from reality.

Rate lock advice

My recommendation reflects the success so far of the Fed’s actions. I personally suggest:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• FLOAT if closing in 30 days
• FLOAT if closing in 45 days
• FLOAT if closing in 60 days

But it’s entirely your decision.

The Fed might end up pushing down rates further over the coming weeks, though that’s far from certain. And you can expect bad patches.

As importantly, the coronavirus has created massive uncertainty — and disruption that seems capable of defying in the short term all human efforts, including perhaps the Fed’s. So locking or floating is a gamble either way.

How the Fed’s helping mortgage rates

In an announcement on March 23, the Federal Reserve said it was lifting the previous cap on its purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBSs). For now, there would be no limit on how much it would spend buying these. For a sustained period, it was buying assets (so not just MBSs) at a rate of $1 million every second.

MBSs are bond-like instruments: bundles of mortgages that are traded on a secondary market. Picture a tall pile of different closing documents tied up with string and you’re probably getting the concept of an MBS, even if the reality is often more digital. Chances are, your existing mortgage is tied up in just such a bundle and forms part of one MBS.

And, if you’re currently buying or refinancing a home, it’s the going price of these bundles on that secondary market that more than anything else determines your next mortgage rate. However, as you’re about to discover, it’s not the only determinant.

How Fed affects mortgage rates

For reasons explained near the end of this article, it’s a mathematical certainty that the higher the price of MBSs, the lower the rate you’ll pay.

Given that the Fed is a gigantic new buyer in this secondary market, it should generate increased demand that raises MBS prices and so creates lower yields for investors — and lower mortgage rates for you.

So that’s the theory. But we’ve seen a lot of those crumble to dust in recent months. And only time will tell how well this one holds up in practice.

Challenges to the Fed’s program

That Fed program took a while to have an effect on mortgage rates. Indeed, it was only on April 6 that they first dipped lower than they were on March 23, when unlimited purchases were announced. So how come there was a delay? And why do we still see some rises?

Well, there’s a lot going on here. But a big reason may be a resurgence in new applications from consumers for refinances.

Since late in March, refinances have been elevated, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). In the previous three weeks, the numbers of new applications for refinancings were respectively 225%, 218% and 210% higher than the same week one year earlier. And the latest data, published this morning for the week ending May 8, showed that figure to still be 201% up on the same period in 2019. This may show an easing. But it’s a very slow one.

So no surprises there. As you’d expect, current, near-record lows for these rates are tempting more homeowners to refinance. But there’s one problem …

Fed may now be main player

… Investors hate refinances, especially if they’re for mortgages that are recent. Each sees a mortgage pulled from an MBS bundle — and a reduction of income and profit on that MBS. Indeed, some investors make actual losses on especially fast refinancings.

So the last thing they want is to replace lost mortgages with ones at an even lower rate and yield. And, understandably, they’re shying away from MBSs. But the law of supply and demand means that lower demand inevitably pushes up mortgage rates. (Remember that counterintuitive mathematical certainty that lower bond prices mean higher yields and rates.)

So the Fed is trying to resist the market forces that arise when investors vote so decisively with their feet. We still think it likely (though far from certain) that it will get its way in the end and stabilize the market, perhaps pushing mortgage rates even lower in the process. But don’t expect a smooth ride.

Fly meets ointment

However, there’s another issue in play. Lenders that aren’t banks face cash flow problems arising from the pandemic. Millions of homeowners are already unable to make their monthly mortgage payments in full.

Yesterday, House Democrates published a $3-trillion stimulus bill that included more aid for housing. It proposed $75 billion for mortgage relief and $100 billion for renters. Senate Republicans have already rejected the bill and the White House is widely expected to oppose it. But it may form a basis for further negotiations.

On Monday, the MBA said it reckoned the percentage of mortgage loans already in forbearance was 7.91% on May 3, up from 7.54% a week earlier. That latest figure likely represented nearly 4 million homeowning households with mortgages currently in forbearance plans. And, so far in May, as many as 22% of those in that group have failed to make even a partial monthly payment, according to a survey published by Apartment List last Thursday.

All that means some loans that are in lenders’ “warehouses” (that are waiting to be sold) are turning bad before they even reach the secondary market as forbearances, delinquencies and defaults become more common.

Possible removal of fly

That problem’s likely to get only worse as unemployment and underemployment soar. Already, COVID-19 has caused more than 33 million Americans to lose their jobs.

Importantly, those non-bank lenders currently originate more than half of all residential mortgages. If they find themselves with warehouses overflowing with unsellable MBSs, that could leave them without the cash to lend to future borrowers. And that would see the supply of new mortgages diminish.

Toward the end of April, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced two initiatives that might assist non-bank lenders. But it’s unclear just how helpful those will be.

Higher rates that are unconnected to MBS prices

Meanwhile, of course, while we’re waiting to see how the FHFA’s initiatives play out, a reduced supply of any product tends to push prices (or rates in this case) upward. This supply issue happens further down the mortgage production line than where the Fed is tinkering — and than where higher prices mean lower yields and rates.

And a similar thing happens when lenders who can’t cope with sudden tsunamis of demand try to manage their workloads. They deter would-be borrowers through higher rates. So we may occasionally have already seen higher rates that are unconnected with MBS prices.

You can now understand why we said there’s a lot going on here.

Mortgages tougher to get

It’s all very messy. And some lenders are offering appreciably lower rates than others. Meanwhile many are putting restrictions on their loans. And you may find it harder to find a cash-out refinance, a loan for an investment property — or any mortgage at all if your credit score’s iffy. So shopping around for your loan or refinance is even more important than usual.

Last Thursday, the MBA revealed the extent to which spooked lenders are tightening their credit requirements. Its Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) fell by 12.2% in April. And Joel Kan, an economist and MBA associate vice president, explained:

The overall index fell to its lowest level since December 2014, and the subindexes pointed to tightened credit supply for all loan types. The decline was largely driven by lenders dropping many low credit score and high-LTV* programs, as well as further reduction in jumbo … products.

* LTV stands for loan-to-value ratio and determines how big a down payment you need. The higher the LTV, the less you have to put down.

An economist writes …

Back in mid-March, realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale thought lower rates were coming. “That [Fed buying of MBSs] should stabilize rates and bring them back down lower,” she said on her employer’s website. “They’ll [likely] go back to the low 3% [range]. Might we see rates below 3%? I wouldn’t rule it out.”

Those predictions are still looking sensible. However, they’re not universally shared. So you shouldn’t totally rely on them when you’re planning for the future.

For example, in their latest figures, published on April 2, the MBA’s economists forecast that the rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage would average 3.6% between now and the start of October. And that’s a higher rate than they were forecasting in March.

But, having said that, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac unveiled their rates forecasts in mid-April (details below). And they both expect them to head lower, more in line with Danielle Hale’s prediction. Indeed, Fannie’s expecting that rate to dip to 2.9% in 2021.

What should you conclude from this? That nobody’s sure about much.

Economic worries

Domestic threat

April 29’s official gross domestic product (GDP) figure showed the US economy contracting at a rate of 4.8% during the first quarter of this year. And research firm Capital Economics revealed on April 24 its expectations for the second quarter. Those are of a whopping 40% contraction between April 1 and June 30. More conservatively, on May 8, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s running GDP estimate put real GDP growth for the current quarter at -34.9%.

Last Friday’s official employment situation report wasn’t quite as devastating as many economists had been forecasting. But the unemployment rate still soared to 14.7%, up from 3.5% in February.

And, at 20.5 million, the total number of jobs lost in April was a record. Indeed it was more than twice as many in that one month than the 8.7 million that disappeared throughout the Great Recession.

A recession of some sort seems inescapable. But what will it look like?

What shape will a recession take?

Economists are squabbling about the shape (if you pictured it on a graph) the recession might take.

For a while, a V-shaped one (sharp dip and sharp recovery) was favorite. And it still is for some. On Monday, in a newsletter, Comerica Bank Chief Economist Robert A. Dye wrote:

We have never before experienced the huge one-month job loss that we saw in April. Likewise, we have never experienced the hopefully quick reabsorption of millions of unemployed workers back into their jobs. The stop-and-restart of this economy is unprecedented.

But other shapes are available. Somes think a W more likely, especially if there’s a second wave of coronavirus infections following the early ending of lockdowns. Others fear an L: a precipitous fall and no recovery.

A “Nike swoosh” (based on that company’s famous logo) is gaining popularity. That’s a sharp drop followed by a gradual recovery. Monday’s Wall Street Journal ran the headline, “Why the Economic Recovery Will Be More of a ‘Swoosh’ Than V-Shaped.”

Global threat

Last Thursday, the Bank of England (the UK’s central bank and its equivalent of our Fed) issued a strikingly ominous warning. It said that, according to one plausible model, this wouldn’t just be the worst economic slump in Britain since the Great Recession (2007-09). Nor even the worst since the Great Depression (1929-33). It would be the worst since 1706 when the War of the Spanish Succession was raging.

And such mayhem looks unlikely to be confined to Europe. On April 14, the World Bank updated its 2020 global projections:

… we project global growth in 2020 to fall to -3 percent. This is a downgrade of 6.3 percentage points from January 2020, a major revision over a very short period. This makes the Great Lockdown the worst recession since the Great Depression, and far worse than the Global Financial Crisis.

Don’t take forecasts too seriously

Of course, such forecasts are justifiably worrying and must be taken seriously. But don’t assume that they’re going to prove wholly accurate.

A headline in The Financial Times on April 20 summed up the situation during this pandemic when so little is certain: “Banks are forecasting on gut instinct — just like the rest of us.”

And never forget a remark made by the late Harvard economics professor John Kenneth Galbraith:

The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.

Markets seem untethered from reality

We said above that markets are untethered from reality. That is, of course, a value judgment. But it’s hard to see why the S&P 500 stock index was up nearly 13% in April, its best monthly performance in 33 years.

That’s especially confusing given that, on May 1, analytics firm FactSet calculated that the decline in earnings for S&P 500 companies during the first quarter was -13.7%. CNN Business summed up the situation in a newsletter last Friday:

For weeks, stock valuations have appeared at odds with the economic realities of the moment … But bad economic news will keep surfacing the question: Have investors gone too far, too fast given the risks that remain?

Sly like a fox? Or not?

On April 10, The New York Times offered a possible explanation for markets’ apparent break from reality. Investors see the same death tolls, GDP forecasts, unemployment numbers and company earnings results as the rest of us.

But they hope the federal government’s and Federal Reserve’s mass pumping of trillions of dollars into the economy will see the big companies in which they invest emerge largely unscathed — or even stronger as smaller competitors go to the wall.

Indeed, they perceive huge numbers of newly unemployed Americans each week as a plus. Because, politically, those force the administration and Congress to pump in yet more money.

But this strategy’s success depends on a very quick economic recovery (a V-shaped recession) once the COVID-19 threat dissipates. Yes, maybe Wall Street expectations of one will be proved right, even though many economists doubt it.

But you may wonder whether investors should be betting so big on so many unknowable variables. And we’ll continue to say they’re untethered from reality.

Economic reports this week

So, if markets follow recent history, they’re going to shrug off any bad news in this week’s economic reports. Stock indexes closed appreciably higher last Friday — the day when the most devastating employment situation report on record was published. So what are the chances of their taking any notice of this week’s reports?

There are three on the current calendar that they’d normally take careful notice of. Tuesday’s consumer price index is a key indicator of inflation, though that’s been stable for ages.

Friday would usually be the big day, as it brings both retail sales numbers for April and May’s consumer sentiment index. Just don’t lay bets on there being any reaction.

Forecasts matter

More normally, any economic report can move markets, as long as it contains news that’s shockingly good or devastatingly bad — providing that news is unexpected.

That’s because markets tend to price in analysts’ consensus forecasts (below, we use those reported by MarketWatch) in advance of the publication of reports. So it’s usually the difference between the actual reported numbers and the forecast that has the greatest effect.

And that means even an extreme difference between actuals for the previous reporting period and this one can have little immediate impact, providing that difference is expected and has been factored in ahead.

This week’s calendar

This week’s calendar of important, domestic economic reports comprises:

• Monday: Nothing
• Tuesday: April consumer price index (CPI)* (actual -0.8%; forecast -0.8%) and core CPI* (actual -0.4%; forecast -0.2%). Also April’s small business optimism index (actual 90.9 index points; no forecast but 96.4 in March) from the National Federation of Independent Business
• Wednesday: April producer price index (actual -1.3%; forecast -0.5%)
• Thursday: Weekly jobless claims to May 9 (forecast 2.73 million new claims).
• Friday: April retail sales (forecast -12.3%) and retail sales less autos (forecast -9.0%). Plus April industrial production (forecast -12.0%) and capacity utilization (forecast 63.2%). And finally the May consumer sentiment index (forecast 69.8 index points)

Forecasts for the most important reports are as dire as you’d expect during a huge pandemic. But expect markets to turn a blind eye.