Housing sales boom fading away: Rics | Mortgage Strategy

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Demand for housing, although still high, is softening, shows the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors residential survey for December.

At the end of the year, new buyer demand came in with a net balance of 15 per cent, a positive result but some way behind the net balance of 26 per cent seen in November.

And December witnessed new instructions listed to the tune of a 7 per cent net balance.

The agreed sales metric, meanwhile, showed a net balance of 18 per cent, the seventh month in a row to show a positive reading, but as with many other readings in December, it was a slip from November – which in that case saw a 24 per cent net balance.

Near time sales expectations fell from a net balance of minus 6 per cent in November to minus 22 per cent at the close of 2020 – the weakest reading since April 2020. Casting its gaze 12 months ahead, however, the respondents gave a net balance of minus 6 per cent for sales expectations.

Despite this general slowing down in activity, house prices continued to shoot up, with a net balance of 65 per cent of respondents saying they had seen price gains, with only London scoring low – a net balance of 7 per cent.

Rics reports house prices are expected to fade “significantly” over the next three months, reported a net balance of minus 13 per cent, but at 12 months providing a net balance of 24 per cent.

Tenant demand improved with a net balance of 15 per cent backing this up, but landlord instructions scored a net balance of minus 12 per cent. “Contributors across virtually all parts of the UK envisage rents rising over the near term,” concludes the Rics report.

Rics chief economist Simon Rubinsohn says: “Although the housing market remains open for business in the midst of the latest national lockdown, there is a sense from respondents to the survey that the new restrictions will still impact on transaction activity over the coming months.

“This is most visible in the negative reading for sales expectations over the next three months when typically, with the expiry of the stamp duty holiday approaching, this series would be expected to remain firmly in positive territory.

“Looking beyond this immediate time horizon, the feedback from Rics members is that the uplift in prices over the past year will be sustained, for good or ill, as the macro picture gradually improves on the back of the rollout of the Covid vaccination programme. More significantly, private rents are envisaged to outpace price gain as supply continues to fall short of demand with anecdotal reports of landlords exiting the market.”


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