Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates nudged higher yesterday, following an important announcement by the Federal Reserve. But the movement was modest. And those rates start today at roughly the same level as they were on Monday evening.

Mortgage rates today look likely to hold steady or just inch either side of the neutral line. But current levels of volatility make such predictions less reliable than normally.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (Nov 4th, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Right now, the economic recovery looks set to deliver higher mortgage rates for weeks and months to come. However, it’s not going to be plain sailing. And there will inevitably be periods of falls.

Still, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes inched up to 1.56% from 1.55%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were mostly higher soon after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices climbed to $82.87 from $81.49 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity. 
• Gold prices rose to $1,796 from $1,769 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — jumped to 83 from 79 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to be unchanged or barely changed. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (Nov 4th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that previously existed

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve made its big announcement. And it was exactly as everyone expected.

Namely, the Fed will cut its $40 billion-a-month purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) by $5 billion later in November. And, absent setbacks, by the same amount in each succeeding month until those purchases reach zero in the middle of 2022.

That $40 billion a month has been a powerful force keeping mortgage rates artificially low over the last 19 months of the pandemic. So why didn’t those rates spike yesterday, as they did the last time the Fed made a similar announcement, in 2013?

Well, this time around the Fed had learned lessons from the 2013 debacle. And, instead of a single, shock announcement, it had trailed its intentions for months. So literally nobody was the least surprised yesterday. And investors had already adapted their strategies to accommodate the changes.

May not be over yet

Indeed, you could argue that the Fed had nothing to do with yesterday’s modest rise in mortgage rates. Because economic data on employment (from ADP) and the purchasing managers’ index for the services sector (from the Institute for Supply Management) were much better than expected. And those might have explained the increase.

But a glance at the chart of yesterday’s activity in bond markets shows investors were engaged with the Fed, with spikes on both sides of the announcement.

And that may mean we could see Fed-related activity for days to come as markets further explore all the implications of yesterday’s changes.

Tomorrow

Watch out for tomorrow’s official employment situation report. Many currently regard that as the most important monthly report. And it’s more than capable of making waves in markets. Mortgage rates usually rise if it’s unexpectedly good and may fall if it’s bad.

For more background, read last Saturday’s weekend edition of these daily reports.

Recently — Updated today

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Since then, the picture has been mixed with extended periods of rises and falls. Unfortunately, since September, the rises have grown more pronounced, though not consistently so.

Freddie’s Nov. 4 report puts that weekly average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 3.09% (with 0.7 fees and points), down from the previous week’s 3.14%.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts 

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining, current quarter of 2021 (Q4/21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22 and Q3/22).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s and Freddie’s were published on Oct. 15 and the MBA’s on Oct. 18.

Forecaster	Q4/21	Q1/22	Q2/22	Q3/22
Fannie Mae	3.1%	3.2%	3.2%	3.3%
Freddie Mac	3.2%	3.4%	3.5%	3.6%
MBA	3.1%	3.3%	3.5%	3.7%

However, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual.

All these forecasts expect at least modestly higher mortgage rates fairly soon.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Nov 4th, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology