New sales listings rise for first time in 12 months: RICS | Mortgage Strategy

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The number of new homes listed for sale has risen for the first time in twelve months, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

In March, +8% of respondents reported a rise in the volume of fresh listings coming onto the sales market despite ongoing caution over the rising cost of living and higher interest rates, its Residential Market Survey reports.

New buyer enquiries also rose, with +9% of respondents reporting a rise.

The survey says: “This is the first time since the pandemic that the survey metrics for supply and demand have been so closely in line.”

It adds that although the small increase in the number of available new listings is “encouraging, the average number of properties on estate agents’ books remains close to historic lows”.

The number of agreed sales was unchanged from February with +9% reporting an increase, which the body says is indicative of a steady upward trend in transaction numbers.

Respondents anticipate a continued moderate rise in housing market activity in the near term.

Over the next three months, sales expectations remain positive with +16% of contributors expecting a rise. Next March, respondents expect sales volumes will be broadly stable with +2% anticipating a rise.

The report adds: “Despite the slightly more encouraging news on the supply front, house prices continue to rise at a firm pace. This month, +74% of respondents saw a rise in house prices and is almost identical to the average seen over the past twelve months.”

Northern Ireland, Wales and the North of England continue to see the steepest rise in house prices.

Looking further ahead, contributors expect house prices to rise in the coming three or twelve months, with a net balance of +30% and +65% respectively. Over the next five years, contributors expect house prices to increase by around 4% a year.

In the rental market, landlord instructions rose for the first time since July 2020. But the report adds that demand continued to rise at a “robust pace”, with +54% of respondents citing a rise in March.

It says: “While more properties are being listed for rent, demand still outpaces supply, and rental growth expectations remain elevated with +64% of respondents predicting a rise, the strongest reading on record.”

Looking ahead, contributors anticipate rents will rise by 4% for the next twelve months, and 5% a year over the following five years.

RICS chief economist Simon Rubinsohn says: Despite mounting concerns about both the macro environment and the war in Ukraine, for now the feedback to the RICS survey shows the housing market remains resilient.

Rising interest rates have begun to push up the cost of mortgage finance but debt servicing remains low in a historic context which helps to explain why the new buyer enquiries indicator remains in positive territory.

Meanwhile, it is encouraging that a little more stock appears to be returning to the market. This is still early days in that inventory remains not far off historic lows but if the trend continues, it could help to create a better balance between supply and demand.

That said, there is little evidence of this outcome materialising in the twelve-month metrics which continue to point to further increases in prices and a flatter pattern in transactions.”


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