Intermediary confidence in the prospects for the mortgage industry improved in the second and third quarters of 2024, having fallen to the same levels as Q1 following the October Budget.
This is according to the latest Mortgage Market Tracker report from the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (Imla).
The report reveals that by the mid-year point, confidence on three measures (market outlook, intermediary sector and own business) had returned to a long-run, pre-Truss ‘norm’, but by the fourth quarter confidence was guarded, with only 22% of intermediaries saying they felt ‘very confident’ in the market outlook, 65% ‘fairly confident’, 10% ‘not very confident’ and 2% ‘not at all confident’, just a 1% variation on the report’s results for Q1 2024.
Brokers expressed greater faith in the intermediary sector itself than the wider market, and their confidence grew over the quarter, with 41% describing themselves as very confident in the sector and 51% fairly confident in December.
Optimism about their own businesses measured the most strongly among brokers in Q4 as it has done all year, and again matched the results for Q1, with 42% saying they were very confident and 53% fairly confident over the three months.
These readings improved month-on-month, with 56% in the ‘very confident’ camp by December and 41% in the ‘fairly confident’.
Business split across the sectors was very similar to earlier quarters, with residential lending continuing to account for around two-thirds of intermediaries’ business, buy to let down slightly at 22% and specialist lending edging up to 12%.
First-time buyers continued to dominate in the residential space, accounting for around one third of cases. Remortgages and product transfers were evenly split, each accounting for just under a quarter of all residential cases.
October Budget blues
Commenting on the findings, Imla executive director Kate Davies said:
“October’s Budget dealt a blow to UK confidence across the board, including the mortgage market. However, November’s interest rate cut and a more dovish approach from the Bank of England may have contributed to the boost in sentiment at the end of the year.
“Throughout 2024, intermediaries have consistently expressed more confidence in their own businesses than the market itself, which is testament to their faith in their ability to keep delivering in the face of adversity.”
When it comes to sub-sectors of the market, Davies said it was no surprise that buy to let has contracted slightly given the current conditions, the increase in Stamp Duty and the looming Renters’ Rights Bill, while a gradual rise in the proportion of specialist cases made sense in an increasingly complex and challenging economic environment.
She added:“It will be interesting to see whether remortgaging starts to take dominance over Product Transfers in the year ahead, as falling rates should improve affordability and provide more opportunities for existing borrowers to shop around the whole market with the help of their broker.”
