Demand climbs but medium-term fears simmer: Rics | Mortgage Strategy

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The latest Rics survey shows that demand for housing in the UK grew for the second month in a row this July.

However, trepidation over sales a year from now persists, with the phasing out of the furlough scheme cited as a major reason.

The report shows a headline net balance of 75 per cent of respondents seeing a rise in new buyer enquiries and a net balance of 59 per cent for new instructions listed.

It also shows a net balance of 57 per cent of respondents seeing a rise in agreed sales – in June, the net balance read as 43 per cent.

Regarding house prices, a net balance of 12 per cent of survey respondents saw hour price increase, which compares to negative 13 per cent in June. London was the only region to report a decline here, throwing up a net balance of negative 10 per cent.

Over the next three months, 26 per cent of respondents expect sales to increase, but the figure for the next 12 months is grimmer – negative 10 per cent. The ending of the furlough scheme and the temporary Stamp Duty cut are the main concerns.

In the rental sector, tenant demand rose, showing a net balance of 35 per cent, and 6 per cent saw new landlord instructions grow.

The net balance for rental growth expectations over the next three months jumped from negative 35 per cent in June to 20 per cent in July.

Rics chief economist Simon Rubinsohn says: “The strong impetus provided to the housing market is evident both in the results of the Rics survey and many of the anecdotal comments from respondents. However, it is interesting that there remains rather more caution about the medium-term outlook… significantly, some contributors are now even referencing the possibility of a boom followed by a bust.

“Meanwhile, one of the other notable aspects of the survey is the feedback that there is a greater interest in properties that offer some features that help better manage future lockdowns whether it is access to green spaces, gardens or balconies.”

North London estate agent Jeremy Leaf adds: “Most buyers seem to be aware of the risks of buying in uncertain times and are reluctant to take on more debt than necessary.

“We therefore do not anticipate prices rising sharply, particularly as more property is coming onto the market making supply and demand more balanced.”


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