Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates rose again yesterday and by a surprisingly appreciable amount. By recent standards, those rates are now high. So don’t believe Freddie Mac’s latest weekly report, which was already way out of date by the time it was published.

Early signs in markets suggest mortgage rates today might fall. But investors are skittish and there are no guarantees.

Find and lock a low rate (Jun 18th, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Find and lock a low rate (Jun 18th, 2021)

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

All this week’s rises in mortgage rates have been in anticipation of or in response to the Federal Reserve’s news conference and report on Wednesday. I thought markets may have settled down by yesterday morning. But they hadn’t. And those rates have moved from a recent low to the highest they’ve been in some time within a few days.

I hope that most readers who were still floating heeded my warnings and locked well before the Fed met. But those who didn’t might want to wait for a couple of days of falls in the hope of recouping some of their losses. However, those falls may not be enough to put them back where they were last Friday.

And my personal rate lock recommendations must remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasurys fell to 1.50% from 1.56%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
• Major stock indexes were lower soon after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower
• Oil prices dropped to $71.16 from $72.23 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity. 
• Gold prices edged lower to $1,776 from $1,789 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — tumbled to 35 from 47 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to fall. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Jun 18th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

Yesterday morning, it looked as if markets had finished reacting to the Federal Reserve’s revelations on Wednesday. And some had. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes, which mortgage rates often follow, closed much lower than it opened that day.

So it may be that a possibility of which I warned yesterday morning was in play. And that was that some lenders were yet to include all of Wednesday’s rises in their rate cards. So they would be playing catch-up yesterday.

Now that’s out the way, we may be back to calmer times. And we can hope that mortgage rates might fall a little, perhaps back within their recent narrow range — and then move up and down modestly each day within that.

But the bigger picture hasn’t changed. And most experts still expect mortgage rates to move higher at some point quite soon. But whether that’s a matter of days, weeks or months is anyone’s guess. Because there are simply too many variables in play to even attempt to suggest a time frame.

Mortgage rates and inflation: Why are rates going up?

For more background, read Saturday’s weekend edition of this column, which has more space for in-depth analysis.

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates rose.

However, those rises were mostly replaced by falls in April, though those moderated during the second half of that month. Meanwhile, May saw falls very slightly outweighing rises. Freddie’s June 17 report puts that weekly average at 2.93% (with 07 fees and points), down from the previous week’s 2.96%. But that won’t have included most of the sharp rises we saw this week.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2/21, Q3/21, Q4/21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1/22).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on June 16 and the MBA’s on May 21. Freddie’s forecast is dated April 14. But it now updates only quarterly. So its numbers are starting to look stale.

Forecaster	Q2/21	Q3/21	Q4/21	Q1/22
Fannie Mae	3.0%	3.0%	3.2%	3.2%
Freddie Mac	3.2%	3.3%	3.4%	3.5%
MBA	3.1%	3.3%	3.5%	3.7%

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Jun 18th, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology