So here we are already, about to wave goodbye to yet another year and one that has gone by in the blink of an eye.
As the World Cup continues under a massive cloud of questions wondering why we ever let it go ahead in Qatar — especially in winter, which does not feel right at all — only England’s progression from the group sends us a sliver of warmth (sorry, Wales, but you will be back).
There have been many highs this year
There is usually a ‘World Cup effect’ that seems to slow down everything, but it seems to have made little difference in a period that could be described as the quiet before the storm.
Rebirth
It looks like everything is pointing towards a sudden rebirth for the property market at the start of next year, with lenders waiting in the wings to reduce rates even further and buyers looking tentatively at a market they think will be better value in a few weeks’ time.
As always, it is all about timing, but it will take some talented soothsayers to predict what happens next.
Demand is still there and will remain, despite a recession
How do we sum up 2022? Loads of words come to mind, most of which are not printable, but having been an avid watcher of ‘The Crown’ I am drawn to one of our dear late Queen’s speeches.
Though the term ‘annus horribilis’ may be a little dramatic for some, I suspect that many brokers will not look back on 2022 with undiluted pleasure. In fact, I have not enjoyed this year much. I feel fat, unfit, worn out and agitated, and have had prolonged periods of anxiety, stress, imposter syndrome and feeling down. This year has had an air of relentless uncertainty, especially after we began so optimistically.
If 2023 is waiting in the wings with its own ‘Hold my beer’ moment, I implore it to be remembered as the year things got better and everyone got a bit nicer!
Caring for clients
It is difficult to explain to those outside the industry, and even some within it, just how hard brokers have worked for their clients at this time. Family gatherings, dinners, parties and long-standing arrangements were all abandoned, and the stress and worry of caring so much about our clients were deeply etched into tired, drawn faces.
We do take these things personally, whether they are down to factors beyond our control or not.
I worry that this relentlessness — the rate pulls, home working and the capricious nature of the market generally — has had an effect on many brokers’ mental health. We all need a rest.
We have a regulator that is engaging with our industry, open dialogue and listening on both sides
At least since the last clowns left Number 10 and we have had a new regime, a new chancellor and a new mini-Budget that is the mirror image of the first one, things have calmed — but the damage caused by this will linger for some time.
The good news is the markets currently show that three-month Sonia is stable at 3.36%, while swap rates continue to fall to more acceptable levels and surely mortgage rates won’t be far behind.
Since the previous column:
2-year money is down 0.23% at 4.27%
3-year money is down 0.32% at 4.09%
5-year money is down 0.40% at 3.79%
10-year money is down 0.41% at 3.33%
There have been loads of rate reductions by lenders already and, with the Bank base rate looking like it will settle at around 3.5% to 4% , I expect we will see the majority of rates next year at around 4% to 4.5%, with a fair smattering of 3% rates in due course.
In the end, having a happy client makes it all worthwhile
House prices will settle around 10% down; the pandemic and stamp duty holiday froth coming off, back to more natural levels. Demand is still there and will remain, despite a recession. With more affordable rates, behavioural economics suggests these will begin to feel cheaper to consumers now they’ve had the worry of 6% rates anchored in their brains. Budgeting will be tough for many, but a lot more will adapt quickly.
Extra properties will keep hitting the market and buyers will be tempted back. The remortgage market will continue to be strong.
Collaboration
So, despite my sudden bouts of angst, there is always so much to lift me again, so much to be thankful for, so much to feel positive about, to learn from and grow as businesses and people. Many firms and brokers have had a good year despite the workload. Without the difficult times, how do we acknowledge the good ones?
I am lucky to have such a wonderful team around me at Coreco, but I know, and I hope you readers know too, that there is always someone in this industry who will take a call, go for a coffee or pint, and chat through things honestly and in confidence. Not one of us is ever alone in this industry.
It is difficult to explain to those outside the industry, and even some within it, just how hard brokers have worked for their clients at this time
There have been many highs this year, much for all of us to be proud of. The communication and willingness to work together have been the best I can remember.
For the first time, we have collaborated to make our industry a better place; more inclusive and diverse, more welcoming for people from all socio-economic backgrounds, ethnic groups and sexual orientations. We have become committed to making our industry events and workplaces a safe space where we can be ourselves.
We are working together to tackle the green agenda, to deal with the massive regulatory change that the Consumer Duty brings, to try to finally bring technology that works for everyone into the customer journey with advice and people at its centre.
It looks like everything is pointing towards a sudden rebirth for the property market at the start of next year
We have a regulator that is engaging with our industry, open dialogue and listening on both sides. We have strong trade bodies working together for the good of our sector, for our interests and those of our clients. Our own trade body, Ami, has an exceptional team and board of leaders that genuinely care about making our industry better for everyone.
We have had Ukraine Aid and a wealth of other charitable events from businesses large and small, looking to give something back to their communities.
We have seen a massive growth in the number of voices in both the industry and the national press, utilising tools like Newspage. Those voices are diverse, authentic and different.
There is a smorgasbord of new talent, new podcasts, social media users on every platform — the majority of whom show the industry at its best.
There is always someone in this industry who will take a call, go for a coffee or pint, and chat through things honestly and in confidence
This is what the broker community does. We always see the positives, we adapt, we weather the storms and we come back stronger than ever, continuing to champion the cause of our clients. We excel in tough times when the public most needs our advice.
We can all think of the thousands of pounds we have saved our clients, the homes, security and memories we have helped to create, and feel proud. In the end, having a happy client makes it all worthwhile.
Wishing you all a peaceful, restful, happy holiday season, Merry Christmas, and a healthy and prosperous new year. Bring on 2023!
Hero to Zero
Our amazing broker industry and all within it – hat doffed once more
BDMs – we never forget how hard you work – you deserve your break too
Government scheme pilot to help mid-rise buildings with cladding – about time
Lenders’ rates are still ‘overpriced’ – hope this will change in early January
Disreputable companies exploiting homeowners with poor insulation techniques
The cost-of-living crisis, especially fuel costs – it will hurt this winter for many
What Really Grinds My Gears?
I’m starting to get bored with people having a go at lenders, businesses and individuals for what seems like, well, any old excuse. Whether it’s just to moan, to get noticed, to try too hard to show they are different, or simple jealousy of someone else’s exposure, I am not sure.
We all have private thoughts, but do we really need to take out our frustrations with ourselves in the direction of others, publicly? If I want to vent, I can do so behind closed doors with some trusted close friends. In fact, it’s healthy to do that.
Yes, some people annoy me, and I am sure I probably annoy some folk, but there is always more to people than meets the eye.
Lenders often annoy me, but many times they also go above and beyond to help. Yet it seems only a few individuals publicly mention the good things rather than the bad. Where is the balance? It is not sycophantic to thank a lender for doing something remarkable. Thank you, personally, Halifax, Kent Reliance and Santander — you know who you are.
Going into the new year, let’s try a different way: let’s see the good in everything, be thankful for what we have and, if we have issues with each other, settle them privately and honestly together.
It is often hard to do, but we are better than this. We are the mortgage industry, after all.
Andrew Montlake is managing director of Coreco
