House prices rocket by 7.1% but when will the bubble burst?

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The building society’s house price index recorded a rebound in growth to 7.1% in April from 5.7% in March.

Meanwhile, month-on-month figures revealed prices went up by 2.1% – a rate of growth not seen by Nationwide since February 2004.

Indeed, Nationwide’s chief economist said if prices remained flat over the next two months annual growth would reach double digits in June.

Average UK house prices are currently at £238,831, according to the society, which means they have grown by £15,916 over the past year.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “Just as expectations of the end of the stamp duty holiday led to a slowdown in house price growth in March, so the extension of the stamp duty holiday in the Budget prompted a reacceleration in April.

“However, our research suggests that while the stamp duty holiday is impacting the timing of housing transactions, for most people it is not the key motivating factor prompting them to move in the first place.

“For example, amongst homeowners surveyed at the end of April that were either moving home or considering a move, three quarters said this would have been the case even if the stamp duty holiday had not been extended.”

Nevertheless, Gardner went to say he thought housing market activity was likely to remain ‘fairly buoyant’ over the next six months as a result of the extension.

However, additional support from the labour market included the in the Budget and changing house preferences would provide an additional boost.

“Further ahead, the outlook for the market is far more uncertain,” Gardner added.

“If unemployment rises sharply towards the end of the year as most analysts expect, there is scope for activity to slow, perhaps sharply.”

House price correction

Indeed, many experts responding to today’s house price data were speculating on when – not if – a correction might take place.

Guy Harrington, CEO of residential lender Glenhawk said: “The honeymoon won’t go on forever, and the longer the current unsustainable levels of house price growth continues, the sharper and more painful the eventual correction will be.

“The stamp duty holiday and higher household savings because of the restrictions might paint a positive picture till Autumn, but we will see reality set in once the support schemes end and the scale of slowdown then might catch many by surprise.”

Forecast beyond 2021

Anna Clare Harper, chief executive of asset manager SPI Capital, had a different take. She said drivers such as the need to move to different surroundings following lockdowns, along with cheap borrowing and low interest rates plus the ‘safety’ of property as an asset would be strong future drivers of the market.

She added: “These drivers are likely to hold up throughout 2021. The good news for property investors and homeowners is that property tends to hold its value well through times of uncertainty, because demand stays strong and new supply is limited.

“Ultimately, we all need a roof over our heads. That said, while stamp duty has been the main talking point driving house prices and transactions over the past year, the next trend investors and homeowners need to know is quite different.

“In the context of our commitment to net zero, environmental efficiency will be a key driver of house prices and values going forward.”