Market downbeat in February but signs of easing ahead: Rics Mortgage Strategy

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The housing market remained “downbeat” in February, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, although a pick up among some indicators in its latest survey point to a “more stable picture” later this year.  

The body also called for measures to boost housebuilding ahead of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s 15 March Budget, and the continuation of the government’s Energy Price Guarantee to support the economy amid the cost-of-living crisis.  

New buyer enquiries series rebounded to a net balance of -29%, compared with -45% in January, says the body’s February Residential Market Survey.   

But it adds this is still the tenth month in a row that this measure has been in negative territory.  

The surveyors polled pointed to more fresh listings coming onto the market, with the net balance improving to -4% compared with -12% in January and -22% in December.  

Although the level of market inventory remains not far away from “a historic low,” with estimates edging up to 34.8 properties per surveyor branch last month, compared to 34 in January.  

The report’s newly agreed sales indicator “was also somewhat less negative,” improving from a net balance of -26%, from -36% the previous month.  

Sales completion times edged upwards to approach 19 weeks.  

Current house prices “remain challenging”, with the latest net balance for rising values at -48% in February, little changed from -46% the month before.  

The study adds that 60% of surveyors say that homes worth up to £500,000 are selling for less than the asking price – for homes worth between £500,000 and £1m that rises to 70%.  

Looking ahead over the next 12 months, the sales outlook among surveyors was “more stable” with a net balance of -8% anticipating growth. This compares to -20% in January and -45% back in August.  

In the lettings market, tenant demand continues to increase according to a net balance of +32% of respondents.  

At the same time, landlord instructions continue to decline albeit at a lesser pace than in the recent past, returning a net balance of -13%.  

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors senior public affairs officer Sam Rees says: “Ahead of the UK Budget on 15 March, Rics is emphasising the critical role housing has to the UK economy, and the need to boost supply through new builds and commercial property conversions where appropriate whilst conforming to the strictest standards.  

“Rics supports efforts to improve the energy efficiency of homes and the continuation of the government’s Energy Price Guarantee.

“Further fiscal intervention for consumers and businesses is required to scale up the retrofitting of UK homes and we welcome initiatives such as [the government’s] ECO+ [home insulation scheme] that go some way in delivering such needs.  

“With rising rents and diminishing housing stock in the private rental sector, the government must do more to support landlords who are leaving the market due to increasing cost and regulation challenges.  

“Landlords continue to raise concerns with Rics on the lack of clarity and financial support from government to meet expensive energy efficiency improvement targets which is further pressuring landlords into exiting the sector.”  

Hargreaves Lansdown head of personal finance Sarah Coles points out: “Things are getting worse more slowly, but while the agents in the Rics report are finding reasons for optimism, this may be premature.  

“Buyer and seller numbers continued to drop, agreed sales fell, and prices were on their way down. In order to shift properties, most people are now having to accept an offer. Despite pockets of enthusiasm, these aren’t signs of a rising market.   

“When you add in the Bank of England’s figures showing rock bottom levels of mortgage approvals in January, it means we may well see more decline in the months to come.”  

Coles adds: “For renters meanwhile, there’s no let up. While the number of landlords leaving the market has slowed, they’re still packing up and heading out – while tenant numbers continue to grow.   

“It means more rent rises are on the horizon – which isn’t just miserable for renters, it also bodes ill for the stickiness of inflation.”  


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