Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates inched lower yesterday, again by the smallest measurable amount. It was a repeat of last Friday when a rise looked likely early in the day but turned into a fall. And it’s been two weeks since we last saw an actual rise.

This morning’s consumer price index for March came in just a shade hotter than most economists expected. But that wasn’t enough to affect markets significantly, at least early in the day. And mortgage rates today look likely to hold steady or inch either side of the neutral line.

Find and lock a low rate (Apr 14th, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Find and lock a low rate (Apr 14th, 2021)

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

For the reasons set out below in “Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?” my personal lock recommendations must stand.

Yes, it’s two weeks today since we last saw these rates rise. And you might well choose to hold off on locking until mortgage rates begin to rise again. But be prepared for sharp movements once the current lull ends.

And, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

But I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasurys edged down to 1.66% from 1.68% (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
• Major stock indexes were mostly higher on opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
• Oil prices inched down to $60.21 from $60.32 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
• Gold prices nudged up to $1,748 from $1,738 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Fell to 52 from 55 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to be unchanged or barely changed. Just be aware that intraday swings (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Apr 14th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care‘
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

This morning’s release of the consumer price index for March was a big event. And to think, only a year or so ago, I was telling readers that inflation hadn’t been a seriously hot topic for decades.

Well, it is now. Some economists fear that the imminent economic boom will bring appreciably higher levels of inflation. And that’s a real worry for investors in safe, long-term, low-yield assets, such as mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

You can see why. Who wants to be stuck for the next 30 years with an MBS yielding 3.3% (less servicing costs) when they might get a yield beginning with a 4 if they wait a while?

If they do wait, less demand for MBSs means lower prices. And that — counterintuitively but inevitably — means higher yields and mortgage rates.

So fears of future inflation might bring higher mortgage rates. But the likely economic boom later this year could turn out to be an even bigger driver. Because booming economies almost always bring higher interest rates.

And that boom looks increasingly likely. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told CBS’s “60 Minutes” on Sunday:

What we’re seeing now is really an economy that seems to be much at an inflection point … We feel like we’re at a place where the economy’s about to start growing much more quickly and job creation coming in much more quickly. The outlook has brightened substantially.

True, Mr. Powell went on to say that the recovery and boom might yet be derailed, perhaps by a new wave of a fresh COVID-19 variant. But he appeared to think that less likely than the high-growth scenario he outlined.

For more background on my wider thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday soon after 10 a.m. (ET).

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates rose.

However, Freddie’s Apr. 8 report puts that weekly average at 3.13% (with 0.7 fees and points), down from the previous week’s 3.18%. In a news release, Freddie noted, “After moving up for seven consecutive weeks, mortgage rates have dropped due to the recent, modest decline of U.S. Treasury yields.”

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2/21, Q3/21, Q4/21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1/22).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on March 17 and the MBA’s on March 22. But Freddie now publishes forecasts quarterly. Its figures are from Jan. 10 and are looking distinctly stale:

Forecaster	Q2/21	Q3/21	Q4/21	Q1/22
Fannie Mae	3.1%	3.1%	3.2%	3.3%
Freddie Mac	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	N/A
MBA	3.2%	3.4%	3.6%	3.7%

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And there’s certainly a widening spread as the year progresses.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Apr 14th, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology