Mortgage interest rate trends

Beyond timing, mortgage rates are another major factor influencing the market. Realtor.com said mortgage interest rates are likely to continue to ease as inflation creeps closure to the 2% target. But deviations are possible as seen in January's rate movements.

It predicts the 30-year fixed to be in the low-to-mid 6% range by year-end, close to where it is today. While rates have been trending downward since the start of February, they may have plateaued. 

When home prices typically peak

Meanwhile, even though nationwide April 13 through 19 is the best time to sell based on the criteria Realtor.com established, it also noted home prices tend to peak later in the homebuying season, as does the amount of competition. Listing earlier can help homeowners stand out and secure a strong offer.

"Historically, by the end of June, while prices reached near-peak levels (+7.6% in 2024) compared to the start of the year, new sellers also surged, increasing to nearly 1.5 times higher than at the start of the year (+46.2%)," the report said. "Homeowners hoping to sell this year can mitigate that risk by getting into the market early, raising their odds of a successful close and likely negotiating favorable terms."

Homes listed during the week of April 13-19 get 6.7% higher prices and 17.7% more views than average.

Meanwhile, price reductions versus an average week were 20.9% lower.

But this data varies in individual markets, as does the best week to sell. Residents of Boston, Denver, Oklahoma City and Richmond, Virginia are already late, as the current week is the best time to sell in those markets.

Birmingham, Alabama has the latest optimal time to sell, the week of May 11, while in Indianapolis and Memphis, Tennessee, this starts on May 4.

Policy uncertainty

Potential economic policies, including tariffs and housing affordability measures, could influence buyer and seller confidence

Tariffs are expected to make building homes more expensive, helping to drive inflation, which in turn keeps mortgage rates high.

"On the other hand, the administration has signaled their intent to address housing affordability, which could benefit the market," Realtor.com said. "It is too soon to tell how these proposals will play out, and it's important to acknowledge that individual perspectives can influence whether policies create more or less enthusiasm, but buyers and sellers may be hesitant to make any big moves until the future is a bit more clear."

The buy-vs-rent dilemma

While sellers weigh their options, buyers face another challenge: renting is still cheaper in most major cities. A LendingTree study of 2023 data found that in all 100 of the largest cities, it costs more per month to pay a mortgage versus renting.

The nationwide difference between median gross rent ($1,406) and median costs for homes with a mortgage ($1,904) was $498 a month in 2023. That was $23 more than the $475 difference ($1,300 and $1,775, respectively) in 2022.

"In almost half of the nation's biggest cities, it is at least $500 cheaper each month to rent than to own. In some cases, that difference is $1,000 or more," said Matt Schulz, LendingTree's chief consumer finance analyst. "That's real money that can go to other major financial goals like building an emergency fund, investing for retirement, saving for college or even starting a small business."

Local trends in home tenure

When consumers do purchase a home, it now looks to be for the long-haul. The latest data from Redfin put the nationwide average tenure at 11.8 years, unchanged from 2023 and down from 13.4 years in 2020.

However, the median was four years in 2007, jumping to seven years between 2008 and 2016 and had reached 10 years in 2018, according to First American data.

This is another metric with wide local variance. In Los Angeles, the median tenure was 18.4 years, followed by San Jose, California at 18.3 years, the Redfin report noted.

State tax law, enshrined following the passage of Proposition 13, limits property tax increases and thus incentivizes owners to remain in their properties long-term. That's on top of mortgage rate movements, so it's understandable why many are hanging on to their properties.

"But it's a problem for young people trying to break into the state's notoriously expensive housing market," Sheharyar Bokhari, Redfin senior economist, said. "Tight inventory only pushes home prices up more, and adds to the generational homeownership divide."

With fewer homes hitting the market and long-term homeowners staying put, the challenge for younger buyers isn't just affordability—it's availability.