Stamp duty receipts are forecast to jump 17% to £15bn in 2024-25 from the previous year, driven by rising housebuilding and tax changes, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility latest forecast.
The public finances watchdog estimates the government’s housing drive will deliver an extra 170,000 homes by 2029/30 – boosting homes built by 30% that year after a 13-year house building low in 2025-26.
It says the rise in stamp duty and other property transaction receipts “reflects a recovery in the housing market as well as increased activity expected ahead of the decrease in nil-rate stamp duty thresholds in April 2025”.
the body adds that stamp duty revenues are then forecast to rise steadily, with receipts reaching £26.5bn in 2029-30.
On 1 April, the stamp duty rate threshold will fall to £125,000 from £250,000 for home movers, and to £300,000 from £425,000 for first-time buyers.
Rightmove property expert Colleen Babcock says: “It’s extremely disappointing that the government have not used the Spring Statement as an opportunity to extend the impending Stamp Duty deadline for those currently going through the home-moving process.
“We estimate over 70,000 buyers are going to miss the deadline and complete in April instead, and a third of those are FTBs.”
