Homebuyer affordability declines to record low

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The average monthly mortgage payment for a home purchase rose in recent weeks, even as the tight housing market shows signs of loosening.

Payments increased 10% year-over-year to an all-time high of $2,721 for the four weeks ended March 24, Redfin said on Thursday morning.

The Mortgage Bankers Association also released its February Purchase Applications Payment Index the same day, and found the median disbursement increased by $50 from January, to $2,184. That figure is a $123 increase from February 2023.

The PAPI value increased 2.4% to 170.7 in February from 166.8 in January. For the same month last year, the index was 169.7, a 1.1% increase, with the year-over-year change attributed to a 4.8% rise in median income besides the 6% rise in payments.

Rates sticking around the 7% range is a contributing factor, the MBA said.

"Challenging affordability conditions and low housing supply are keeping some prospective homebuyers on the sidelines this spring," said Edward Seiler, associate vice president, housing economics, and executive director of the Research Institute for Housing America, in a press release. "The eventual, expected decline in rates in the coming months will hopefully spur new activity in the housing market."

However, Redfin pointed out that during the period, new listings were up 15% from the four weeks ended March 24, 2023, the most in nearly three years. The total number of homes is 6% higher, the biggest increase in approximately one year.

"High mortgage rates aren't deterring buyers as much as they were last year; a lot of people want to get in now before prices go up more," said Redfin agent Rachel Riva based in Miami, in a press release. "All of my recent listings have gone under contract in under 10 days, and most of them have received multiple offers."

Buyers are dealing with elevated mortgage rates in a number of ways, Riva pointed out. "Some are making high down payments to lower their monthly payments, and some are willing to take on a high rate now in hopes of refinancing when and if rates come down."

Median-priced single-family homes and condos remain less affordable in the first quarter compared with historical averages in more than 95% of U.S. counties that Attom Data Solutions had enough data to analyze.

Meanwhile, major expenses on those homes were 32.3% of the average national wage in the first quarter, several points above common lending guidelines.

As bad as that data sounds, it is actually a quarter-to-quarter improvement for both, although worse than one-year prior, Attom said.

The portion of average wages nationwide required for typical mortgage payments including property taxes and insurance remains up almost 3 percentage points from one year ago and 11 points higher from early in 2021.

"The picture for home buyers is brightening a little again as affordability measures have improved for the second quarter in a row," said Rob Barber, Attom's CEO, in a press release.

Even though the prospect of owning a home remains a financial stretch or even a pipe dream, for many households, with mortgage rates coming down from high points near 8% and home prices growing only by modest amounts, "it's gotten a bit easier for average wage earners to afford a home so far this year," Barber said. "The upcoming Spring buying season will say a lot about whether home prices remain stable enough for this trend to continue."

In only 13 counties nationwide were home prices more affordable than the historical average, but even that needed to be taken with a grain of salt because two of those locales were New York County, also known as Manhattan, and San Francisco County, whose entirety is the city limits. Those are traditionally among the highest priced markets in the U.S.


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