Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates moved higher yesterday. But only by the smallest measurable amount. So they remain exceptionally low.

And mortgage rates today look likely to hold steady or move up just a bit. But, as always, that could change as the hours pass.

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Mortgage rates have barely moved over the last couple of weeks. Yes, there have been the usual, small daily changes. But they’ve all but canceled each other out.

Still, I continue to take the view that the risks of floating your rate outweigh the likely benefits of doing so. So I remain in the pro-lock camp.

And, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• FLOAT if closing in 45 days
• FLOAT if closing in 60 days

However, I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged up to 1.28% from 1.26%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower
• Oil prices climbed to $66.92 from $64.88 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity. 
• Gold prices inched up to $1,806 from $1,805 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — increased to 36 from 30 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely either to remain unchanged or to inch higher. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Aug 24th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that previously existed

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

Yesterday, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) fully approved the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. And that was probably behind that day’s and this morning’s modestly higher mortgage rates.

How come? Well, presumably investors hope that it will improve the take up of COVID-19 vaccines and so reduce the economic damage that might be caused by the Delta variant. Many who have been vaccine-hesitant have been swayed by the argument that these vaccines could be unsafe because they’re still undergoing clinical trials. And that no longer applies, at least for the Pfizer product.

When investors think the economy is set to do better, they typically sell safer bonds and buy riskier but higher-earning stocks. That lower demand reduces the price of bonds and raises their yields. It’s a mathematical inevitability that bond prices and yields move inversely.

Friday remains a crunch day

Yesterday, I explained why this Friday might be a crunch day. Two big events happen then:

1. The Federal Reserve chair will give a speech at 10 a.m. (ET) that morning that just might reveal a bit more about the Fed’s evolving easy-money policy
2. A key measure of inflation will be published 90 minutes before that speech

Either of those has the potential to move mortgage rates appreciably. But will they?

Nobody knows. It depends on what the speech and inflation report say and how unexpected any news they generate is. So there’s a good chance nothing will change. And it’s just possible they’ll push down mortgage rates. But it’s perhaps a bit more likely that they’ll send those rates higher.

Neither you nor I can be sure what will happen. But it’s an extra risk for you to weigh when you’re deciding whether to lock your rate or to continue to float it.

For more background, read Saturday’s weekend edition of this column.

Mortgage rates and inflation: Why are rates going up?

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates rose.

However, those rises have been mostly replaced by falls since April, though typically small ones. Freddie’s Aug. 19 report puts that weekly average at 2.86% (with 0.7 fees and points), down from the previous week’s 2.87%.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3/21 and Q4/21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1/22 and Q2/22).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s and the MBA’s were updated on Aug. 19. But Freddie’s were last refreshed on July 15 because it now publishes these figures only quarterly.

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual.

All these forecasts expect higher mortgage rates soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And it may be that Fannie isn’t building in the Federal Reserve’s tapering of its support for mortgage rates while Freddie and the MBA are.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Aug 24th, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology