Property sales up in July, but down 16% year-on-year Mortgage Strategy

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The number of properties sold in the UK rose by 1% in July – but are still 16% lower than the same time last year.

HMRC’s property transactions data for July, released today, shows the provisional seasonally adjusted estimate for residential transactions sales stood at 86,190.

The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of UK non-residential transactions in July was 9,340, 9% lower than July 2022 and 8% lower than the previous month.

The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of UK non-residential transactions in July 2023 was 9,770 – 6% lower compared to the same time last year and 3% higher than June.

Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, says: “Transaction numbers have slipped in the face of higher interest rates and the cost of living, as borrowers reassess what they can afford to pay.

“Swap rates, which underpin the pricing of fixed-rate mortgages, and have been exceptionally volatile in recent weeks, have settled down since the encouraging dip in inflation.

“Lenders continue to tweak their fixed-rate mortgages downwards so borrowers will be hoping that other lenders follow suit, with the worst of the rate rises behind us.’

GreenResi chief executive Anna Clare Harper says: ‘‘Housing transactions were down 16% in the year to July 2023, reflecting weaker confidence and demand, but fears of a house price crash are thought to be over-blown.

“Higher interest rates have made buying and owning property much less affordable.”

Legal & General Mortgage Services managing director Kevin Roberts says: “Whether buying or remortgaging, the UK housing market has clearly seen a quieter period over the summer, with consumers choosing to sit tight and take a ‘wait and see’ approach.

“This contrasts against the urgency we saw earlier this year as borrowers raced to lock into new deals in a market of rising rates.

“However, we expect this pause in activity will likely be short-lived as a more stable market shapes new norms, encouraging buyers to make a move onto or up the housing ladder, and existing borrowers to remortgage as their deals expire.

National estate agent group Fine & Country’s managing director Nicky Stevenson says: “Property transactions were stable in July, rising slightly compared to June on a seasonally adjusted basis.

“Affordability pressures caused by successive base rate rises are squeezing demand compared to last year, but the housing market is proving resilient.

“Buyers have become used to the higher-rate lending environment, and many sellers are pricing their properties accordingly.

“Sensibly priced properties continue to attract a lot of interest, while smaller homes in affordable locations are proving the most popular.

“A pause in base rate rises would stabilise mortgages and inject even more confidence into the property market.

“Hopefully we are soon reaching the point where the Bank of England can take a step back from interest rate hikes and let the economy recover of its own accord without needing to pull another lever.”

Primis propositions director Vikki Jefferies says: “Despite tough market conditions as a result of elevated inflation and the cost-of-living crisis, property transaction figures continue to sit well above the numbers we saw pre-pandemic.

“This speaks to the resilience of the market, which should see activity bounce back once inflation and interest rates return to lower levels.

“In the meantime, broader market activity is being driven by re-financing.

“Data from our product desk shows that product transfers and rate switching have continued to be a focal point for broker queries.”


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