Spring home purchase market is one of cautious optimism

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Monthly mortgage payments for recently purchased homes remain elevated, causing pending sales to decrease. But signs are emerging that consumers are starting to look at houses again, Redfin said.

The typical monthly mortgage payment was $2,802 using a four-week calculation for the period ended March 30, up 5.2% over the same time frame in 2024. This compared with a revised $2,798 for the rolling four-week period ended March 23.

Redfin reported a median sales price of $386,019 for the period, up 3.4% year-over-year. The median asking price increased even more, at 6.7% to $424,975.

During March, 290,829 net new listings entered the market, a 10% annual increase, a Housecanary report said. Even though total inventory is now 21.9% higher than it was 52 weeks ago, it is still historically low.

The median listing price was $452,886 for March, a 1.7% year-over-year increase, Housecanary said. February's median price was $444,264. The median closed price rose 4.8% year-over-year for March to $431,019.

However, Redfin pointed to Showingtime data that touring activity was up 37% from the start of the year to the end of March; this compares with a 16% gain during the same time in 2024. Easter was occurring during the comparable period a year ago, likely keeping activity down, Redfin noted.

Meanwhile, new listings did rise, by 12.7% compared with the same four weeks last year, and that was the biggest increase in 11 months, Redfin said.

"Supply is picking up; a lot of people I've spoken to over the last year or two are calling, saying they're ready to list their house," Matt Ferris, a Redfin agent from northern Virginia, said in a press release. "Some believe we're at the top of the market, and they want to get top dollar for their house."

Others are doing so for the usual reasons: they want a bigger house, they've decided to retire, or they are relocating, Ferris said.

However, the Housecanary data showed price reductions surged by 40.8% compared to last year. It is a signal sellers are responding to shifting affordability dynamics.

This data shows the housing market is continuing toward a more balanced state. "Expanding inventory is shifting dynamics in favor of buyers, while steady contract volume signals continued demand," the Housecanary report said. "Though price growth persists, the rise in price cuts suggests sellers are adjusting to affordability constraints."

With minimal relief coming in the future from mortgage rate declines, both buyers and sellers have adjusted their Spring purchase price season expectations, a report from Veros Real Estate Solutions added. It doesn't hurt that inventory is higher compared with 2024.

Going forward, home prices are expected to grow by 2.4% in the next 12 months, Veros said in its first quarter 2025 forecast.

It is a decline from the previous quarter's outlook of 2.7%.

The underlying fundamentals will be unchanged from the period, Veros said. This includes mortgage rates, which have limited prospects for any near-term reduction.

The 30-year fixed has averaged between 6.6% and 6.7% since the start of March, Freddie Mac found. This followed an approximate 40 basis point drop from mid-January to the first week in March.

"Inflation continues to be a significant concern, as evidenced by the recent increase in the core Personal Consumption Price Index for February 2025, and this is before the full impact of tariffs is felt," the Veros report said. "This stickiness in core inflation will likely prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at their present levels for the foreseeable future."

Still, cautious optimism is the buzz right now. "The hope for easing interest rates and prices is tempered by concerns over tariffs, persistent inflation and broader economic anxieties that could hinder a more robust recovery," Veros said.


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