Savills has downgraded its house price growth forecast this year, and expects prices to rise by 1% this year instead of 4%, after a more cautious start to 2025.

Savills head of residential research Lucian Cook says: “Interest rates have fallen as expected, giving buyers a bit more financial capacity than they had a year ago. But a lot has changed over the last six months.”

“Greater geopolitical uncertainty – including tariffs and trade wars – has made predicting the precise path of further cuts more challenging.”

“The last three months have been marked by a lack of buyer activity, despite improving affordability, and annual house price growth slowed to 2.1% in the year to June, according to Nationwide (down from 4.7% in December 2024).”

“In light of this and the potential for more buyer uncertainty in the run up to the Autumn Budget, we have revised our house price forecast for this year.”

Savills’ revisoon come as it expects house price growth to total 24.5% by the end of the five years to 2029, adding an extra £86,300 onto the average house price.

The property agent forecasts concerns over the prospect of future tax increases to weigh most heavily on the top end of the market.

Cook adds: “Recent easing of mortgage regulations, including more flexibility on affordability stress tests and higher allowances for loans above 4.5 times income, is likely to boost transaction volumes, particularly by helping more first-time buyers get on the ladder.”

“As a result, we expect that by 2027, transaction numbers will approach the post-GFC norm of 1.2 million per year.”

Market activity in 2025 has been affected by changes to Stamp Duty in April. While there was a surge in activity at the start of the year with March seeing the second-highest monthly sales volume since 2006, there was a sharp rebalancing after the deadline.

While a dip was anticipated, the scale of the decline outpaced the earlier surge, but demand turned positive in June after four consecutive months of decline.

Meanwhile, supply has remained consistently positive in 2025, hitting +7 in May, but sales agreed are still low at -28.

Savills says this imbalance led to a 0.5% dip in Q2, reflecting a high level of unsold homes on the market.

Total transactions are projected to reach 1.04 million by year-end, in line with previous forecasts.

While elevated supply levels may temper price growth, Savills maintains a positive outlook for 2025 overall despite the slow start.

Savills director of research Emily Williams says: “We anticipate that buyer demand will pick up heading into early autumn, particularly among first-time buyers and mortgaged home movers, driven by an expected base rate cut in August and a more competitive mortgage market”.

“Consumer confidence in June was the joint highest since last summer, and mortgage rates remain at their lowest for a while.”

Beyond next year, house price growth will be determined by affordability, says Savills.

Commenting on this, Savills research analyst Dan Hill explains: “Falling interest rates in combination with relaxation around affordability tests will open up greater capacity for house price growth than would otherwise be the case, ultimately leading to a higher transaction market.”

“We expect this to offset the weaker economic outlook over the forecast period, albeit the softened prospects for economic growth will temper homebuyers appetite to stretch themselves much further.

“Higher than expected inflation in the UK is making policymakers cautious when it comes to further base rate cuts. While we have forecast based on the scenario described, there are ongoing risks in both directions which have the potential to disrupt the housing market.”