Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates edged lower yesterday. Phew! That was the first fall in 10 calendar days and felt overdue. Today’s rates may feel high. But that’s only in comparison with parts of 2020 and 2021. Go back any further and they’re still extraordinarily low.

And there may be more good news this morning. Because mortgage rates today look likely to hold steady or inch lower.

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Nothing’s arisen that’s shifted my view of where mortgage rates are heading. And, until something does, I’m fairly confident that they’ll carry on higher.

But every upward trend is punctuated with occasional falls. So don’t be surprised when those occur, including yesterday and perhaps today.

Meanwhile, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes inched down to 1.54% from 1.55%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were higher soon after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower
• Oil prices increased to $80.81 from $79.87 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity. 
• Gold prices rose to $1,797 from $1,781 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — climbed to 37 from 33 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to remain unchanged or inch lower. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Oct 14th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that previously existed

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

The monetary policy body of the Federal Reserve is called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). And yesterday saw publication of the minutes of its last meeting.

Investors always study such minutes closely. But yesterday’s were especially important. Because they revealed the likely timetable for the winding down (“tapering”) of the Fed’s asset purchase programs, which were an emergency response to the pandemic.

And one of those programs has been keeping mortgage rates artificially low for the last 18 months. Clearly, there’s a strong chance that those rates will head yet higher once the Fed begins to withdraw its support.

Those minutes have mostly confirmed what we already knew, with just a few extra details. And a November start for tapering seems to have switched from being likely to highly likely, though a December one remains possible. 

It’s probable that an announcement will be made on Nov. 3, immediately after the next FOMC meeting. Tapering itself would then begin in mid-November. And the faucet will be turned off completely by mid-2022, according to current plans.

Other forces

Meanwhile, other forces are also acting to push mortgage rates higher. And those include persistently high inflation (as shown in yesterday and today’s relevant economic reports) and more than a month of falling numbers for new COVID-19 cases in the US.

Of course, some new force could emerge at any moment that drags mortgage rates lower. But that would have to be economically catastrophic. And none of us wants that.