Contract closings decreased 5.9% last month to an annualized rate of 4.02 million, the weakest March since 2009, according to National Association of Realtors figures released Thursday. That was below most estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

The median sales price increased 2.7% from a year ago to $403,700, a record for the month of March and extending a run of year-over-year price gains dating back to mid-2023. 

Home ownership continues to be out of reach for many Americans amid one of the least affordable housing markets on record between rising prices and mortgage rates approaching 7%. Looking forward, the outlook is grim with tariffs poised to not only raise the cost of furniture and construction, but also add further stress to financially strained consumers.

The gain in prices largely reflected more sales activity for homes priced above $1 million, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said on a call with reporters. However, he also noted that the size of the increase was relatively mild compared to wage growth.

More broadly, prices are rising even as more inventory comes onto the market from depressed levels. The supply of previously owned homes jumped 19.8% from a year ago to 1.33 million, the most for any March since 2020.

The National Association of Home Builders estimates tariffs will boost the cost on contractors by $10,900 per home — and said most of its members are already seeing suppliers raise prices. While that would impact mostly new construction and renovations, it could increase demand for existing homes and therefore make them more expensive.

Existing-home sales account for the majority of the US total and are calculated when a contract closes. Government data Wednesday showed that new-home sales jumped last month as the South recovered from bad weather earlier in the year.