Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates inched higher last Friday. And conventional loans started out this morning at 2.625% (2.625% APR) for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. 

The blockbuster news this morning was that Pfizer and BioNTech found a 90% efficacy rate in their COVID-19 vaccine study. Markets were already higher on the calling of the presidential race. But these news events together could see a steep rise in mortgage rates today.

Find and lock a low rate (Nov 9th, 2020)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Find and lock a low rate (Nov 9th, 2020)

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

If you can get in before your lender raises its rates too far, you might well wish to do so. Today’s likely sharp rise may moderate somewhat in coming days. But these rates may also remain higher than Friday’s for some time.

Yes, it true the pandemic is still raging, with the US passing the 10 million mark (and recording more than 100,000 new cases on several recent days) for infections. Worse, deaths are also rising at alarming rates. And even a vaccine with the efficacy of Pfizer’s will take many months to be launched and to begin to turn those trends around.

But markets pride themselves on looking several months ahead. And this gives them a reason to ignore the short-term consequences of the pandemic.

Of course, they’re right to be in a celebratory mood. And I must change my personal rate lock recommendations accordingly:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• FLOAT if closing in 60 days

But, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. In particular, there’s a risk that I’m overestimating the longevity of today’s bounce. So be guided by your gut and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with about the same time last Friday morning, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasurys soared to 0.94% from 0.82%. (Very bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
• Major stock indexes rocketed higher on opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
• Oil prices rose to $40.94 from $37.88 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates* because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
• Gold prices tumbled to $1,877 from $1,949 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Shot up to 62 from 40 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. The Fed is now a huge player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

So use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to rely on them. Today, they’re looking horrible for mortgage rates.

Find and lock a low rate (Nov 9th, 2020)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (way over $1 trillion) should put continuing downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work miracles all the time. So expect short-term rises as well as falls. And read “For once, the Fed DOES affect mortgage rates. Here’s why” if you want to understand this aspect of what’s happening
2. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
3. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
5. When rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
6. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are currently appreciably higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today

This morning’s vaccine news will be widely perceived as a game-changer. And it’s likely to send mortgage rates shooting upward.

Even before that, markets were higher on the back of progress in the election. Networks finally called the presidential race for President-elect Joe Biden on Saturday morning. Yes, their decision has no legal force. But it’s based on electoral mathematics and seems highly likely (though not 100% certain) to stand.

I was expecting the calling of that race to produce the short-term bump that was materializing earlier. Why only short term? Because I foresaw markets soon having to switch their focus back to the devastating economic effects of the pandemic.

Well, now they can but with some confidence. Yes, scientists warn there are still hurdles for Pfizer to clear.

But this morning’s vaccine announcement changes a whole lot. And it has put markets into a euphoric mood that could last weeks or longer — absent any bad news that sobers them up.

Recently

Over the last few months, the overall trend for mortgage rates has clearly been downward. A new all-time low was set early in August and we’ve gotten close to others since. Indeed, Freddie Mac said that a new low was set during each of the weeks ending Oct. 15 and 22 and Nov. 5. And last Thursday’s numbers didn’t include the appreciable falls seen over the previous two days.

But not every mortgage expert agrees with Freddie’s figures. In particular, they relate to purchase mortgages alone and ignore refinances. And if you average out across both, rates have been consistently higher than the all-time low since that August record. The gap between the two has been widened by a controversial regulatory change.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for the last quarter of 2020 (Q4/20) and the first three of 2021 (Q1/21, Q2/21 and Q3/21).

Note that Fannie’s (out on Oct. 19) and the MBA’s (Oct. 21) are updated monthly. However, Freddie’s are now published quarterly. Its latest was released on Oct. 14.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages:

Forecaster	Q4/20	Q1/21	Q2/21	Q3/21
Fannie Mae	2.9%	2.8%	2.8%	2.8%
Freddie Mac	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%
MBA	3.0%	3.1%	3.1%	3.2%

So predictions vary considerably. You pays yer money …

Find your lowest rate today

The pandemic — together with a surge in home sales and mortgage and refinance applications — has created some turmoil in the home loans industry.

And that’s making it harder for some borrowers to find the sorts of mortgages they need. So be prepared to shop around even more widely than usual.

But, of course, comparison shopping for a loan is always important. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Nov 9th, 2020)

Mortgage rate methodology