RICS predicts slow recovery amid grim April data - Mortgage Strategy

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Key indicators of housing market health plunged to new lows in April as the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors warned the recovery could take at least a year.

The monthly survey of valuers found that 80 per cent of respondents reported instances of buyers and sellers pulling out of transactions.

Following on from the March survey which registered the most pessimistic outlook for home sales in at least 22 years, today’s index shows sentiment deteriorated further still last month as lockdown restrictions on viewing properties and moving house continued.

RICS has welcomed the easing of the rules by the government this week, but warned that the recovery is likely to take around a year and repeated calls for a stamp duty holiday to boost the housing market.

Its April survey found that 62 per cent of respondents believe a stamp duty holiday would help sales recover.

A net balance of 92 per cent of respondents reported a drop in newly-agreed sales, up from 68 per cent in March. 

On average, respondents anticipate sales would rebound to their previous levels in around nine months. 

A net balance of 93 per cent of surveyors reported a decline in new buyer enquiries, up from 76 per cent in March.

Meanwhile 96 per cent of contributors reported a drop rather than a rise in new properties being listed for sale.

This is the weakest net balance since records began in 1999. 

The RICS headline house price indicator dropped into negative territory after three successive months of positive readings, as a net balance of 21 per cent of respondents reported that prices have fallen.

Around 40 per cent of respondents expect prices to be over 4 per cent lower as the market reopens.

On average participants expect it will take 11 months for prices to recover.

In the lettings market, rents are expected to fall across the UK in the coming three months, but stabilise by this time next year.

Over five years, respondents’ rental growth projections average around 2.5 per cent per year, compared to expected house price growth of around 2 per cent.

RICS chief economist Simon Rubinsohn says: “Not surprisingly, the latest survey shows that housing activity indicators collapsed in April reflecting the impact of the lockdown. 

“Looking further out, there is a little more optimism but the numbers still suggest that it will be a struggle to get confidence back to where it was as recently as February. 

“Moreover, whether this can be realised will largely depend on how the pandemic pans out and what this means for the macroeconomic environment.  

“Critically, to ensure the housing market can begin to operate in a more functional way and that developers have the confidence to continue building in these very difficult circumstances, further specific interventions from government, following on from the announcement of flexible site working hours, and support to smaller developers announced yesterday, are likely to be necessary.” 

RICS head of UK government relations Hew Edgar adds: “The data suggests that our proposal for a stamp duty holiday would be a successful change that would boost transactional activity, helping people move home.  

“There are, of course, other options available to government as they reopen the market, notwithstanding stamp duty options such as reducing or removing stamp duty for downsizers that would kickstart market fluidity, and we look forward to continuing conversations as the market starts to move again.”

North London estate agent and former RICS residential chairman Jeremy Leaf says:“This data, though interesting, has largely been overshadowed by the re-opening of the property market yesterday so the next survey is likely to be quite different, bearing in mind the spike in enquiries which followed the announcement. 

“Nevertheless, near-term expectations show that we shouldn’t get carried away by this sudden release of pent-up demand. 

“Many bigger hurdles remain for homebuyers and sellers, not least in arranging visits safely and securely, as well as ensuring that previous as well as new lending arrangements are in place on the same or similar terms.”


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