House prices to see modest growth in 2026: Halifax Mortgage Finance Gazette

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The UK housing market performed broadly in line with expectations over the last year, Halifax reveals, with modest growth expected in 2026.

The latest data shows that there was limited annual growth of 0.7%, its weakest level since March 2024, which Halifax head of mortgages Amanda Bryden highlighting it was “one of the most settled years for UK house prices over the last decade”.

The average property price has lifted to a new high of £299,892 a rise of £2,221 from £297,671 a year ago.

Halifax data shows property prices for homes bought by first-time buyers rose by 1.1% over the last year, to an average of £236,836.

Northern Ireland saw the highest rate of annual property price inflation of any UK region or nation over the last year at +8.9%, while Greater London saw average prices fall by the most at 1.0%.

The typical UK house price has increased by 4.7% over the last three years between 2022 and 2025, representing a rise of £13,565.

This compares to a rise of 21.7% over the previous three-year period between 2019 and 2022, which is an increase of £50,974.

Property prices have so far fallen four times on a monthly basis during 2025, and risen on seven occasions.

Halifax found that market activity was influenced by stamp duty changes but overall remained close to pre-pandemic levels.

Bryden says: “The biggest talking point was the change to stamp duty thresholds in the spring, which led to a rush of buyers trying to beat the deadline.

“March was one of the busiest months ever for completed transactions, but this spike didn’t translate into a significant rise in prices, and activity levels soon returned to normal.”

While affordability challenges remain, easing mortgage rates and steady wage growth have supported buyer confidence.

Property prices are expected to rise modestly in 2026, by between 1% and 3%.

However, the bank’s forecast uncertainty remains high given the wider economic backdrop.

Bryden explains: “While affordability remains challenging, the picture has improved compared to recent years, driven by a combination of above-inflation wage growth, lower interest rates and some expansion of eligibility criteria from mortgage lenders.”

“For those taking their first steps onto the property ladder, monthly mortgage costs as a share of income are now at their lowest level since 2022, with the rate on a typical two-year first-time buyer mortgage (90% LTV) dropping by roughly 0.8 percentage points over the last year.”

“The second half of the year was dominated by speculation about potential tax rises in the run up to the Autumn Budget. While this kept market confidence subdued for a time, both prices and activity broadly held steady.”

“Looking ahead to 2026, we expect house prices to rise modestly, by somewhere between 1% to 3%.”

“While wage growth is expected to slow and unemployment may edge higher, lower interest rates and easing inflation should help to gradually improve homebuyers’ purchasing power.”