Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates fell modestly or remained unchanged yesterday. Depending on your lender, it may have been the first decrease you’ve seen in more than a week.

So far this morning, markets are looking noncommittal. And it would be no surprise if mortgage rates today were to end up unchanged or barely changed.

Find and lock a low rate (Mar 2nd, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Find and lock a low rate (Mar 2nd, 2021)

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

I would still lock my mortgage rate as soon as I could. Yesterday’s fall (if you had one) was welcome. But I’m yet to be convinced that it was the start of a continuing downward trend.

Of course, it could turn out to be precisely that. But it seems unlikely (read on to learn why).

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

But, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So be guided by your gut and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET) compared with roughly the same time yesterday:

• The yield on 10-year Treasurys held steady at 1.43%. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
• Major stock indexes were mostly a little higher on opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes bond prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
• Oil prices rose to $60.88 from $60.56 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates.*) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
• Gold prices fell to $1,725 from $1,736 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Rose to 64 from 61 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. The Fed is now a huge player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (meaning rates are likely to rise) or weak (meaning they could fall) to be a reliable indicator.

But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to hold steady or to close steady. Just be aware that intraday swings (when rates change direction during the day) are common right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Mar 2nd, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (way over $1 trillion) should put continuing downward pressure on mortgage interest rates. But it can’t work miracles all the time. Read ‘For once, the Fed DOES affect mortgage rates. Here’s why‘ if you want to understand this aspect of what’s happening
2. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care‘
3. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
5. When rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
6. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

February was a bad month for mortgage rates. Generally, the falls were few and far between — and easily outnumbered by bigger rises.

30-year fixed rates started that month within a stone’s throw of the all-time low. But they ended it well north of the 3% mark.

Yesterday, CNN reported on what’s happening now:

Covid-19 no longer seems to be the biggest concern on Wall Street as more people are getting vaccinated. Now, the focus is squarely on the bond market and inflation. Investors are starting to worry that the economy may heat up too much, and that inflation will make an unwelcome return.

Wall Street’s new bogeyman: the bond market — CNN Mar. 1, 2021

Mortgage rates usually have a close relationship with bonds — and especially yields on 10-year Treasurys. And it’s this fear of inflation that has recently been pushing mortgage rates higher.

Do the last couple of working days, which have been friendlier to mortgage rates, mean more falls ahead? Maybe. But, for now, I suspect it’s the sort of seesawing we’ve been witnessing in stock markets recently rather than a change of direction.

For more background on my wider thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday soon after 10 a.m. (ET).

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. 16 new, weekly all-time lows were set last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then rates rose.

Freddie’s Feb. 25 report puts that weekly average at 2.97%, up from the previous week’s 2.81%, and the highest it’s been since mid-2020.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector, and mortgage rates.

Here are their current rates forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1/21, Q2/21, Q3/21, and Q4/21).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s and the MBA’s were updated on Feb. 18 and 19 respectively. But Freddie now publishes forecasts quarterly and its figures are from mid-January:

Forecaster	Q1/21	Q2/21	Q3/21	Q4/21
Fannie Mae	2.8%	2.8%	2.9%	2.9%
Freddie Mac	2.9%	2.9%	3.0%	3.0%
MBA	2.8%	3.1%	3.3%	3.4%

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there’s certainly a widening spread as the year progresses.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Mar 2nd, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology