Forecast plus what’s driving mortgage rates today

Average mortgage rates barely moved yesterday. But their almost imperceptible direction of travel was downward. So they’re yet lower and are inching toward their all-time low.

The Federal Reserve continues to intervene in the market for mortgage bonds (explanation below). And it’s likely its efforts that have brought about recent falls. We hope that these movements will continue but must repeat our warnings that some rises, possibly soon, are close to inevitable.

Meanwhile, little’s changed for now. And we remain optimistic that, overall, the Federal Reserve will prevent the most serious rises and may perhaps push mortgage rates even lower in coming days and weeks.

However, there’s a lot going on here. And the Fed can only influence some of the forces that affect mortgage rates. So nothing is assured. Read “This week,” below, to discover the essential details.

Market data affecting (or not) today’s mortgage rates

We can still see little relationship between mortgage rates today and activity in the markets they usually follow. So we’re publishing the following only in the hope you have insights that we’re missing. Here’s the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET), the data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday morning:

• Major stock indexes were lower. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
• Gold prices edged up to $1,715 an ounce from $1,713. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower. But if they’re not worried now …
• Oil prices rose to $17.11 a barrel from $15.32 (Bad for mortgage rates* because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
• The yield on 10-year Treasurys inched higher to 0.60% from 0.59%. A year ago, it was at 2.51%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though much less so recently
•  CNN Business Fear & Greed index inched higher to 47 from 46 out of a possible 100 points. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Right now, daily rates are effectively unpredictable. Because they remain untethered from markets — and markets from reality.

Still, we hope the Fed will hold the line against investors who’d like those rates to be significantly higher. And that a trend that’s benign will eventually emerge, punctuated with rises that aren’t too frequent, too sustained or too sharp.

Rate lock advice

I changed my recommendation recently to reflect the success so far of the Fed’s actions. I personally suggest:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• FLOAT if closing in 30 days
• FLOAT if closing in 45 days
• FLOAT if closing in 60 days

But it’s entirely your decision.

The Fed might end up pushing down rates further over the coming weeks, though that’s far from certain. And you can expect bad patches.

As importantly, the coronavirus has created massive uncertainty — and disruption that seems capable of defying in the short term all human efforts, including perhaps the Fed’s. So locking or floating is a gamble either way.

This week

How the Fed’s helping mortgage rates

In an announcement on March 23, the Federal Reserve said it was lifting the previous cap on its purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBSs). For now, there would be no limit on how much it would spend buying these.

MBSs are bond-like instruments: bundles of mortgages that are traded on a secondary market. Picture a tall pile of different closing documents tied up with string and you’re probably getting the concept of an MBS, even if the reality is often more digital. Chances are, your existing mortgage is tied up in just such a bundle and forms part of one MBS.

And, if you’re currently buying or refinancing a home, it’s the going price of these bundles on that secondary market that more than anything else determines your next mortgage rate. However, as you’re about to discover, it’s not the only determinant.

For reasons explained near the end of this article, it’s a mathematical certainty that the higher the price of MBSs, the lower the rate you’ll pay. Given that the Fed is a uniquely huge new buyer in that market, it should generate increased demand that raises MBS prices and so creates lower yields for investors — and lower mortgage rates for you.

Fed’s been buying $1 million in assets

On April 5, The Financial Times reported, “The US central bank bought more than $1m of assets per second over past two weeks.” [Our emphasis.] While MBSs are only a part of those purchases, the Fed’s clearly not holding back. And there’s little reason to think it’s scaling back its activities yet.

So that’s the theory. But we’ve seen a lot of those crumble to dust in recent weeks. And only time will tell how well this one holds up in practice.

Challenges to the Fed’s program

That Fed program took a while to have an effect on mortgage rates. Indeed, it was only on April 6 that they first dipped lower than they were on March 23, when unlimited purchases were announced. So how come there was a delay? And why do we still see some rises?

Well, there’s a lot going on here. But a big reason may be a resurgence in new applications from consumers for mortgages and especially refinances.

Since late in March, refinances have been elevated, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). So, in last week’s figures, the number of new applications for refinancings was 225% higher than the same week one year ago. And, while yesterday’s MBA data, for the week ending April 24, showed that easing, refinance applications were still 218% up on the same period in 2019.

So no surprises there. As you’d expect, current, near-record lows for these rates are tempting more homeowners to refinance. But there’s one problem …

Fed may now be main player

… Investors hate refinances, especially if they’re for mortgages that are recent. Each sees a mortgage pulled from an MBS bundle — and a reduction of income and profit on that MBS. Indeed, some investors make actual losses on especially fast refinancings.

So the last thing they want is to replace lost mortgages with ones at an even lower rate and yield. And, understandably, they’re shying away from MBSs. But the law of supply and demand means that lower demand inevitably pushes up mortgage rates. (Remember that counterintuitive point about lower bond prices meaning higher yields and rates.)

So the Fed is trying to resist the market forces that arise when investors vote so decisively with their feet. We still think it likely (though far from certain) that it will get its way in the end and stabilize the market, perhaps pushing mortgage rates even lower in the process. But don’t expect a smooth ride.

Fly meets ointment

But there’s another issue in play. Lenders that aren’t banks face cash flow problems arising from the pandemic. Millions of homeowners are already unable to make their monthly mortgage payments in full.

“As of April 23, 2020, more than 3.4 million homeowners — or 6.4% of all mortgages — have entered into COVID-19 mortgage forbearance plans,” according to a news release issued last Friday by Black Knight. The MBA’s figure is even higher: 6.99% or 3.5 million home loans on April 19, according to a news release on Monday.

And that means some loans that are in lenders’ “warehouses” (that are waiting to be sold) are already turning bad before they even reach the secondary market as delinquencies and defaults become more common.

That problem’s likely to get only worse as unemployment and underemployment soar. Importantly, those non-bank lenders currently originate more than half of all residential mortgages. If they find themselves with warehouses overflowing with unsellable MBSs, that could leave them without the cash to lend. And that would see the supply of new mortgages diminish.

Possible removal of fly

But, last week, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced two initiatives that might help non-bank lenders.

First came its capping of lenders’ (or, more accurately, servicers’) liability for forbearance issues to four months of payments. Still, Black Knight reckons that will still leave them with revenues reduced by more than $7 billion. That might make it easier for mortgage companies to borrow to cover their shortfalls.

And, secondly, the FHFA said that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could buy loans that are in forbearance. But industry executives are outraged by the deals on offer to non-bank lenders, according to Inside Mortgage Finance magazine. Because those include “steep loan-level price adjustments,” which mean worse returns for mortgage companies.

Higher rates that are unconnected to MBS prices

Meanwhile, of course, while we’re waiting to see how the FHFA’s initiatives play out, a reduced supply of any product tends to push prices (or rates in this case) upward. This supply issue happens further down the mortgage production line than where the Fed is tinkering — and than where higher prices mean lower yields and rates.

And a similar thing happens when lenders who can’t cope with sudden tsunamis of demand try to manage their workloads. They deter would-be borrowers through higher rates. So we may sometimes see (or have already seen) higher rates that are unconnected with MBS prices.

It’s all very messy. And some lenders are offering appreciably lower rates than others while many are putting restrictions on their loans. So you may find it harder to find a cash-out refinance, a loan for an investment property or any mortgage at all if your credit score’s iffy. Shopping around is even more important than usual.

You can now understand why we said there’s a lot going on here.

An economist writes …

On March 16, realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale thought lower rates were coming. “That [Fed buying of MBSs] should stabilize rates and bring them back down lower,” she said on her employer’s website. “They’ll [likely] go back to the low 3% [range]. Might we see rates below 3%? I wouldn’t rule it out.”

Those predictions are still looking sensible. However, they’re not universally shared. So you shouldn’t totally rely on them for future trends.

For example, on April 2, the MBA’s economists forecast that the rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage would average 3.6% between now and the start of October — a higher rate than they were forecasting in March.

But, having said that, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac unveiled their rates forecasts in mid-April (details below). And they both expect them to head lower, more in line with Danielle Hale’s prediction. Indeed, Fannie’s expecting that rate to dip to 2.9% in 2021.

What should you conclude from this? That nobody’s sure about much.

Virus still the biggest factor for mortgage rates

COVID-19 stands for COronaVIrus Disease 2019 and refers to the disease. SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2) is the name of the virus itself. But, whatever you call it, it’s certainly been behind the chaos seen in global markets since Feb. 20. Gosh, a lot can happen in 10 weeks.

COVID-19 hitting biggest economies hardest

Of the world’s top-10 economies, five (America, Italy, France, Germany and the UK) now count their infections in the hundreds of thousands — except the US, which has broken through the 1 million mark. All the other five count them in the tens of thousands.

Of course, no country has sufficient testing to accurately record its actual infection and death rates. And some are less competent than others at compiling data. But some may also be manipulating them for political purposes. So it’s perfectly possible that more than five of those top-10 economies actually have 100,000+ infections.

With the exception of Iran, the worst-hit nations are major economies. That’s probably because those are so interconnected and so many people were routinely moving between them for business or pleasure before travel restrictions were implemented. But emerging economies are likely to be hit hard soon. And the human costs in those could be higher than in advanced nations.

But, while markets are made up of people who share the fears and empathy of the rest of humanity, their focus isn’t directly on COVID-19’s health implications. Their concern when trading is the virus’s economic consequences, which are a byproduct of the medical ones.

Economic worries

We’ve been hearing about the damage low oil prices have been wreaking on oil and fracking companies and those who’ve invested in them or lent to them. But countless other sectors are severely affected, from airlines to restaurants and leisure — and from automakers to financial institutions.

Yesterday’s official gross domestic product (GDP) figure showed the US economy contracting at a rate of 4.8% during the first quarter of this year. And research firm Capital Economics revealed last Friday its expectations for the second quarter. And those are of a whopping 40% contraction between April 1 and June 30.

Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell told a video news conference that recent job losses were “heartbreaking.” Those have now climbed by more than 30 million since lockdowns began. And he predicted:

We are going to see economic data for the second quarter that’s worse than any data we’ve seen for the economy.

Global threat

Last week, a senior policymaker at the Bank of England (Britain’s central bank, so its equivalent of our Fed) suggested: 

… we are experiencing an economic contraction that is faster and deeper than anything we have seen in the past century, or possibly several centuries.

And such mayhem looks unlikely to be confined to Europe. On April 14, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a fairly dire warning. It predicted that most countries’ economies (and the whole global economy) would be 5% smaller next year than they were before the pandemic. And that assumed a sharp recovery in 2021, which isn’t a given.

IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath reckoned this economic hit would “dwarf” the so-called Great Recession 12 years ago.

Don’t take forecasts too seriously

Of course, such forecasts are justifiably worrying and must be taken seriously. But don’t assume that they’re going to prove wholly accurate.

A headline in last Monday’s Financial Times summed up the situation during this pandemic when so little is certain: “Banks are forecasting on gut instinct — just like the rest of us.”

And never forget a remark made by the late Harvard economics professor John Kenneth Galbraith:

The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.

Markets seem untethered from reality

We said above that markets are untethered from reality. That is, of course, a value judgment. But it’s hard to see why, for example, last Friday, the forward price-to-earnings ratio for S&P 500 companies hit its highest level since December 2001.

Or why The Washington Post reported yesterday, “Markets are up nearly 14 percent in April and on track to post the best month since October 1974.”

So how can investors, analysts and traders be embarking on what’s likely to be the worst economic jolt in more than a century with such stars in their eyes?

Markets’ magical thinking

Yesterday was a prime example of markets’ magical thinking. The day started off with a poor and worse-than-expected GDP figure that looks set to mark the start of a severe recession. But they shrugged that off. Instead, they preferred to focus on some positive but speculative news about a drug that might eventually prove effective against COVID-19.

During the day, The Financial Times reported on that drug’s limited testing and unproven efficacy: ” … a paper in a prestigious medical journal [The Lancet] confirmed that the drug had failed to help patients in its first randomized clinical trial.”

Did markets respond to that sobering news by refocusing on the poor GDP figures? What do you think? The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 532.31 points, or 2.2%.

Aren’t investors seeing the same death tolls, infection rates, unemployment rates and GDP forecasts as the rest of us? Do they think company earnings aren’t taking severe hits?

Sly like a fox? Or not?

On April 10, The New York Times offered a possible explanation for markets’ apparent break from reality: They see all that. But they hope the federal government’s and Federal Reserve’s mass pumping of trillions of dollars into the economy will see the big companies in which they invest emerge largely unscathed — or even stronger as smaller competitors go to the wall.

Indeed, they perceive huge numbers of newly unemployed Americans each week as a plus. Because, politically, those force the administration and Congress to pump in yet more money.

But this strategy’s success depends on a very quick economic recovery (a so-called V-shaped recession) once the COVID-19 threat dissipates. Yes, maybe Wall Street expectations of one will be proved right.

But you may wonder whether they should be betting so big on so many unknowable variables. And we’ll continue to say they’re untethered from reality.

Economic reports this week

But don’t be too shocked that investors are shrugging off virtually every domestic economic report. The landscape has changed so profoundly in the last few weeks that most data for March and the first quarter are already out of date and next to useless. They largely reflect a pre-coronavirus world.

However, as we suggested in the previous section, markets seem determined to go their own way, no matter what the real world is doing. So it would be no surprise if they ignored this week’s April figures, too. Those include the consumer confidence index on Tuesday and the Institute of Sales Managers’ (ISM’s) manufacturing index on Friday.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week. That’s the Federal Reserve policymaking body that determines that organization’s interest rates — and therefore many others. Yesterday afternoon’s news conference, led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, revealed no surprise announcements and restated policies that were already know. So it had little impact.

Forecasts matter

More normally, any economic report can move markets, as long as it contains news that’s shockingly good or devastatingly bad — providing that news is unexpected.

That’s because markets tend to price in analysts’ consensus forecasts (below, we use those reported by MarketWatch) in advance of the publication of reports. So it’s usually the difference between the actual reported numbers and the forecast that has the greatest effect.

And that means even an extreme difference between actuals for the previous reporting period and this one can have little immediate impact, providing that difference is expected and has been factored in ahead.

Although there are exceptions, you can usually expect downward pressure on mortgage rates from worse-than-expected figures and upward on better ones. However, for most reports, much of the time, that pressure may be imperceptible or barely perceptible.

This week’s calendar

This week’s calendar of important, domestic economic reports comprises:

• Monday: Nothing
• Tuesday: April consumer confidence index (actual 86.9 index points; forecast 90.0; March 118.8) and March advance trade in goods (actual -$56.5 billion; forecast -$56.0 billion)
• Wednesday: gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter (actual -4.8%; forecast -3.7%), pending home sales index for March (actual -20.8%; no forecast but +2.4% in February). FOMC news conference
• Thursday: Weekly jobless claims to April 25 (actual 3.84 million new claims for unemployment insurance; forecast 3.5 million). March personal income (actual -2.0%; forecast -1.5%), consumer spending (actual -7.3%; forecast -6.9%) and core inflation (actual -0.1%; forecast -0.1%)
• Friday: April ISM manufacturing index (forecast 35.0%) and March construction spending (forecast -3.9%)

If markets pay attention to any of those, it’s likely to be Tuesday’s consumer confidence index and Friday’s ISM manufacturing index. If they glanced at Wednesday’s GDP figures, too, you couldn’t tell. But, if recent history is any guide, they may well ignore them all.