The number of residential property transactions in January 2021 was 2.4 per cent lower than in December 2020, show government figures.
At 121,640 transactions, this was 24.1 per cent higher than in January 2020, however.
It is worth noting that these figures are provisionally seasonally adjusted estimates, and the government warns that they should be treated with caution.
Non-residential transactions came to 8,980 in January 2021, 8.2 per cent lower than in January 2020 and 3.6 per cent lower than December 2020.
“The temporary stamp duty reduction has had a more than proportionate impact on transactions, because buyers can afford much more using mortgages. They can take debt out on the property price, but they cannot use finance to fund transaction costs,” says SPI Capital chief executive Anna Clare Harper.
Hope Capital chief executive Jonathan Sealey comments: “For the first time since April when the bounce back in the property market began, we can see the level of residential transactions starting to decline.
“The chancellor Rishi Sunak will be on his feet next week to deliver a crucial Covid budget and many people in the property sector will be looking for a response to the demand for a review of the deadline. Without which there is a real prospect of this decline continuing, which would undermine the government’s plans for economic recovery.”
And Yopa chief analyst Mike Scott looks ahead too, commenting: “We expect that the number of purchases will remain very high until March, and then drop off for a few months before returning to normal.
“The year as a whole is likely to see a higher number of purchases than in recent years, perhaps as high as 1.3 million.
“The housing market has remained open during the recent and current lockdowns, but many people are still waiting for life to return closer to normal before they make their next move. After a brief slowdown in the second quarter after the stamp duty holiday ends, we anticipate a very active housing market in the second half of this year.”
Garrington Property Finders chief executive Jonathan Hopper has a similar view: “The February and March data will likely see a sprint finish of transactions, so the true test of the market’s momentum will start in April.
“On the front line we’re seeing robust levels of buyer demand, and it’s clear that tens of thousands of aspiring buyers remain determined and ready to move.
“With the Prime Minister setting out the timetable for the lifting of lockdown restrictions, the coming months could see that buyer demand translating into a further surge in sales – possibly even at the pace seen last year.”
